What factors predict the success of a Steam game?
I've seen quite a few discussions, comments and questions on /gamedev
about what determines a game's success. How much does quality matter? Is establishing market awareness before launch the only thing that matters? Does a demo help or hurt? If your game has a poor launch, how likely is it to recover? Is it possible to roughly predict the sales of a game before launch?
In preparation for my game's launch
, I spent a lot of time monitoring upcoming releases trying to find the answer to these questions. I compiled a spreadsheet, noted followers, whether it was Early Access or not, and saw how many reviews it received in the first week, month and quarter.
I'm sharing this data now in the hopes that it helps other developers understand and predict their games' sales.
First some notes on the data:
- One of the important sources of data are the number Steam reviews. There is good evidence that these correlate strongly with copies sold, with frequently cited ratios of 50 sales per Steam review, but there's a wide range. It seems likely that the majority of Steam games fall between 25 and 120 sales per Steam review, but there are outliers. Also, games with a very small number of reviews are much more likely to be outliers in this respect. My own game is the only game I have hard sales numbers for. You can read my lengthy Reddit post on its release, but the relevant numbers are that it sold 1587 copies in the first week and 3580 copies in its first quarter.
- The total number of games in the sample was 115.
- I selected games semi-randomly from from both Popular Upcoming and All Upcoming. This favors the popular upcoming tab somewhat and this was deliberate: I wanted a diverse sample but also one not completely dominated with titles that sold zero copies.
- Games are ordered by their release date which range from 10/26/18 to 12/20/18.
|Game ||Price ||Launch Discount ||Week Guess ||Week actual ||3 Month ||3 Month/week ||Followers ||Early Access ||Demo ||Review Score |
|Pit of Doom ||9.99 ||0 ||7 ||27 ||43 ||1.592592593 ||295 ||Y ||N ||0.8 |
|Citrouille ||9.99 ||0.2 ||16 ||8 ||12 ||1.5 ||226 ||N ||N || |
|Corspe Party: Book ||14.99 ||0.1 ||32 ||40 ||79 ||1.975 ||1015 ||N ||N ||0.95 |
|Call of Cthulhu ||44.99 ||0 ||800 ||875 ||1595 ||1.822857143 ||26600 ||N ||N ||0.74 |
|On Space ||0.99 ||0.4 ||0 ||0 ||0 || ||4 ||N ||N || |
|Orphan ||14.99 ||0 ||50 ||0 ||8 || ||732 ||N ||N || |
|Black Bird ||19.99 ||0 ||20 ||13 ||34 ||2.615384615 ||227 ||N ||N || |
|Gloom ||6.99 ||0 ||20 ||8 ||17 ||2.125 ||159 ||N ||N || |
|Gilded Rails ||5.99 ||0.35 ||2 ||3 ||7 ||2.333333333 ||11 ||N ||Y || |
|The Quiet Man ||14.99 ||0.1 ||120 ||207 ||296 ||1.429951691 ||5596 ||N ||N ||0.31 |
|KartKraft ||19.99 ||0.1 ||150 ||90 ||223 ||2.477777778 ||7691 ||Y ||N ||0.84 |
|The Other Half ||7.99 ||0 ||2 ||3 ||27 ||9 ||91 ||N ||Y ||0.86 |
|Parabolus ||14.99 ||0.15 ||0 ||0 ||0 || ||16 ||N ||Y || |
|Yet Another Tower Defense ||1.99 ||0.4 ||20 ||22 ||38 ||1.727272727 ||396 ||N ||N ||0.65 |
|Galaxy Squad ||9.99 ||0.25 || ||8 ||42 ||5.25 ||3741 ||Y ||N ||0.87 |
|Swords and Soldiers 2 ||14.99 ||0.1 ||65 ||36 ||63 ||1.75 ||1742 ||N ||N ||0.84 |
|SpitKiss ||2.99 ||0 ||3 ||1 ||2 ||2 ||63 ||N ||N || |
|Holy Potatoes ||14.99 ||0 ||24 ||11 ||22 ||2 ||617 ||N ||N ||0.7 |
|Kursk ||29.99 ||0.15 ||90 ||62 ||98 ||1.580645161 ||2394 ||N ||N ||0.57 |
|SimpleRockets 2 ||14.99 ||0.15 ||90 ||142 ||272 ||1.915492958 ||3441 ||Y ||N ||0.85 |
|Egress ||14.99 ||0.15 ||160 ||44 ||75 ||1.704545455 ||7304 ||Y ||N ||0.67 |
|Kynseed ||9.99 ||0 ||600 ||128 ||237 ||1.8515625 ||12984 ||Y ||N ||0.86 |
|11-11 Memories ||29.99 ||0 ||30 ||10 ||69 ||6.9 ||767 ||N ||N ||0.96 |
|Rage in Peace ||12.99 ||0.1 ||15 ||10 ||42 ||4.2 ||377 ||N ||N ||0.85 |
|One Hour One Life ||19.99 ||0 ||12 ||153 ||708 ||4.62745098 ||573 ||N ||N ||0.81 |
|Optica ||9.99 ||0 ||0 ||2 ||3 ||1.5 ||18 ||N ||N || |
|Cybarian ||5.99 ||0.15 ||8 ||4 ||18 ||4.5 ||225 ||N ||N || |
|Zeon 25 ||3.99 ||0.3 ||3 ||11 ||12 ||1.090909091 ||82 ||Y ||N || |
|Of Gods and Men ||7.99 ||0.4 ||3 ||10 ||18 ||1.8 ||111 ||N ||Y || |
|Welcome to Princeland ||4.99 ||0.1 ||1 ||15 ||55 ||3.666666667 ||30 ||N ||N ||0.85 |
|Zero Caliber VR ||24.99 ||0.1 ||100 ||169 ||420 ||2.485207101 ||5569 ||Y ||N ||0.73 |
|HellSign ||14.99 ||0 ||100 ||131 ||334 ||2.549618321 ||3360 ||Y ||N ||0.85 |
|Thief Simulator ||19.99 ||0.15 ||400 ||622 ||1867 ||3.001607717 ||10670 ||N ||N ||0.81 |
|Last Stanza ||7.99 ||0.1 ||8 ||2 ||4 ||2 ||228 ||N ||Y || |
|Evil Bank Manager ||11.99 ||0.1 || ||106 ||460 ||4.339622642 ||8147 ||Y ||N ||0.78 |
|Oppai Puzzle ||0.99 ||0.3 || ||36 ||93 ||2.583333333 ||54 ||N ||N ||0.92 |
|Hexen Hegemony ||9.99 ||0.15 ||3 ||1 ||5 ||5 ||55 ||Y ||N || |
|Blokin ||2.99 ||0 ||0 ||0 ||0 ||0 ||10 ||N ||N || |
|Light Fairytale Ep 1 ||9.99 ||0.1 ||80 ||23 ||54 ||2.347826087 ||4694 ||Y ||N ||0.89 |
|The Last Sphinx ||2.99 ||0.1 ||0 ||0 ||1 ||0 ||17 ||N ||N || |
|Glassteroids ||9.99 ||0.2 ||0 ||0 ||0 ||0 ||5 ||Y ||N || |
|Hitman 2 ||59.99 ||0 ||2000 ||2653 ||3677 ||1.385978138 ||52226 ||N ||N ||0.88 |
|Golf Peaks ||4.99 ||0.1 ||1 ||8 ||25 ||3.125 ||46 ||N ||N ||1 |
|Sipho ||13.99 ||0 ||24 ||5 ||14 ||2.8 ||665 ||Y ||N || |
|Distraint 2 ||8.99 ||0.1 ||40 ||104 ||321 ||3.086538462 ||1799 ||N ||N ||0.97 |
|Healing Harem ||12.99 ||0.1 ||24 ||10 ||15 ||1.5 ||605 ||N ||N || |
|Spark Five ||2.99 ||0.3 ||0 ||0 ||0 ||0 ||7 ||N ||N || |
|Bad Dream: Fever ||9.99 ||0.2 ||30 ||78 ||134 ||1.717948718 ||907 ||N ||N ||0.72 |
|Underworld Ascendant ||29.99 ||0.15 ||200 ||216 ||288 ||1.333333333 ||8870 ||N ||N ||0.34 |
|Reentry ||19.99 ||0.15 ||8 ||24 ||78 ||3.25 ||202 ||Y ||N ||0.95 |
|Zvezda ||5.99 ||0 ||2 ||0 ||0 ||0 ||25 ||Y ||Y || |
|Space Gladiator ||2.99 ||0 ||0 ||1 ||2 ||2 ||5 ||N ||N || |
|Bad North ||14.99 ||0.1 ||500 ||360 ||739 ||2.052777778 ||15908 ||N ||N ||0.8 |
|Sanctus Mortem ||9.99 ||0.15 ||3 ||3 ||3 ||1 ||84 ||N ||Y || |
|The Occluder ||1.99 ||0.2 ||1 ||1 ||1 ||1 ||13 ||N ||N || |
|Dark Fantasy: Jigsaw ||2.99 ||0.2 ||1 ||9 ||36 ||4 ||32 ||N ||N ||0.91 |
|Farming Simulator 19 ||34.99 ||0 ||1500 ||3895 ||5759 ||1.478562259 ||37478 ||N ||N ||0.76 |
|Don't Forget Our Esports Dream ||14.99 ||0.13 ||3 ||16 ||22 ||1.375 ||150 ||N ||N ||1 |
|Space Toads Mayhem ||3.99 ||0.15 ||1 ||2 ||3 ||1.5 ||18 ||N ||N || |
|Cattle Call ||11.99 ||0.1 ||10 ||19 ||53 ||2.789473684 ||250 ||Y ||N ||0.71 |
|Ralf ||9.99 ||0.2 ||0 ||0 ||2 ||0 ||6 ||N ||N || |
|Elite Archery ||0.99 ||0.4 ||0 ||2 ||3 ||1.5 ||5 ||Y ||N || |
|Evidence of Life ||4.99 ||0 ||0 ||2 ||4 ||2 ||10 ||N ||N || |
|Trinity VR ||4.99 ||0 ||2 ||8 ||15 ||1.875 ||61 ||N ||N || |
|Quiet as a Stone ||9.99 ||0.1 ||1 ||1 ||4 ||4 ||42 ||N ||N || |
|Overdungeon ||14.99 ||0 ||3 ||86 ||572 ||6.651162791 ||77 ||Y ||N ||0.91 |
|Protocol ||24.99 ||0.15 ||60 ||41 ||117 ||2.853658537 ||1764 ||N ||N ||0.68 |
|Scraper: First Strike ||29.99 ||0 ||3 ||3 ||15 ||5 ||69 ||N ||N || |
|Experiment Gone Rogue ||16.99 ||0 ||1 ||1 ||5 ||5 ||27 ||Y ||N || |
|Emerald Shores ||9.99 ||0.2 ||0 ||1 ||2 ||2 ||12 ||N ||N || |
|Age of Civilizations II ||4.99 ||0 ||600 ||1109 ||2733 ||2.464382326 ||18568 ||N ||N ||0.82 |
|Dereliction ||4.99 ||0 ||0 ||0 ||0 ||#DIV/0! ||18 ||N ||N || |
|Poopy Philosophy ||0.99 ||0 ||0 ||6 ||10 ||1.666666667 ||6 ||N ||N || |
|NOCE ||17.99 ||0.1 ||1 ||3 ||4 ||1.333333333 ||35 ||N ||N || |
|Qu-tros ||2.99 ||0.4 ||0 ||3 ||7 ||2.333333333 ||4 ||N ||N || |
|Mosaics Galore. Challenging Journey ||4.99 ||0.2 ||1 ||1 ||8 ||8 ||14 ||N ||N || |
|Zquirrels Jump ||2.99 ||0.4 ||0 ||1 ||4 ||4 ||9 ||N ||N || |
|Dark Siders III ||59.99 ||0 ||2400 ||1721 ||2708 ||1.573503777 ||85498 ||N ||N ||0.67 |
|R-Type Dimensions Ex ||14.99 ||0.2 ||10 ||48 ||64 ||1.333333333 ||278 ||N ||N ||0.92 |
|Artifact ||19.99 ||0 ||7000 ||9700 ||16584 ||1.709690722 ||140000 ||N ||N ||0.53 |
|Crimson Keep ||14.99 ||0.15 ||20 ||5 ||6 ||1.2 ||367 ||N ||N || |
|Rival Megagun ||14.99 ||0 ||35 ||26 ||31 ||1.192307692 ||818 ||N ||N || |
|Santa's Workshop ||1.99 ||0.1 ||3 ||1 ||1 ||1 ||8 ||N ||N || |
|Hentai Shadow ||1.99 ||0.3 || ||2 ||12 ||6 ||14 ||N ||N || |
|Ricky Runner ||12.99 ||0.3 ||3 ||6 ||13 ||2.166666667 ||66 ||Y ||N ||0.87 |
|Pro Fishing Simulator ||39.99 ||0.15 ||24 ||20 ||19 ||0.95 ||609 ||N ||N ||0.22 |
|Broken Reality ||14.99 ||0.1 ||60 ||58 ||138 ||2.379310345 ||1313 ||N ||Y ||0.98 |
|Rapture Rejects ||19.99 ||0 ||200 ||82 ||151 ||1.841463415 ||9250 ||Y ||N ||0.64 |
|Lost Cave ||19.99 ||0 ||3 ||8 ||11 ||1.375 ||43 ||Y ||N || |
|Epic Battle Fantasy 5 ||14.99 ||0 ||300 ||395 ||896 ||2.26835443 ||4236 ||N ||N ||0.97 |
|Ride 3 ||49.99 ||0 ||75 ||161 ||371 ||2.304347826 ||1951 ||N ||N ||0.74 |
|Escape Doodland ||9.99 ||0.2 ||25 ||16 ||19 ||1.1875 ||1542 ||N ||N || |
|Hillbilly Apocalypse ||5.99 ||0.1 ||0 ||1 ||2 ||2 ||8 ||N ||N || |
|X4 ||49.99 ||0 ||1500 ||2638 ||4303 ||1.63115997 ||38152 ||N ||N ||0.7 |
|Splotches ||9.99 ||0.15 ||0 ||2 ||1 ||0.5 ||10 ||N ||N || |
|Above the Fold ||13.99 ||0.15 ||5 ||2 ||6 ||3 ||65 ||Y ||N || |
|The Seven Chambers ||12.99 ||0.3 ||3 ||0 ||0 ||#DIV/0! ||55 ||N ||N || |
|Terminal Conflict ||29.99 ||0 ||5 ||4 ||11 ||2.75 ||125 ||Y ||N || |
|Just Cause 4 ||59.99 ||0 ||2400 ||2083 ||3500 ||1.680268843 ||50000 ||N ||N ||0.34 |
|Grapple Force Rena ||14.99 ||0 ||11 ||12 ||29 ||2.416666667 ||321 ||N ||Y || |
|Beholder 2 ||14.99 ||0.1 || ||479 ||950 ||1.983298539 ||16000 ||N ||N ||0.84 |
|Blueprint Word ||1.99 ||0 || ||12 ||15 ||1.25 ||244 ||N ||Y || |
|Aeon of Sands ||19.99 ||0.1 ||20 ||12 ||25 ||2.083333333 ||320 ||N ||N || |
|Oakwood ||4.99 ||0.1 || ||32 ||68 ||2.125 ||70 ||N ||N ||0.82 |
|Endhall ||4.99 ||0 ||4 ||22 ||42 ||1.909090909 ||79 ||N ||N ||0.84 |
|Dr. Cares - Family Practice ||12.99 ||0.25 ||6 ||3 ||8 ||2.666666667 ||39 ||N ||N || |
|Treasure Hunter ||16.99 ||0.15 ||200 ||196 ||252 ||1.285714286 ||4835 ||N ||N ||0.6 |
|Forex Trading ||1.99 ||0.4 ||7 ||10 ||14 ||1.4 ||209 ||N ||N || |
|Ancient Frontier ||14.99 ||0 ||24 ||5 ||16 ||3.2 ||389 ||N ||N || |
|Fear the Night ||14.99 ||0.25 ||25 ||201 ||440 ||2.189054726 ||835 ||Y ||N ||0.65 |
|Subterraneus ||12.99 ||0.1 ||4 ||0 ||3 ||#DIV/0! ||82 ||N ||N || |
|Starcom: Nexus ||14.99 ||0.15 || ||53 ||119 ||2.245283019 ||1140 ||Y ||N ||0.93 |
|Subject 264 ||14.99 ||0.2 ||25 ||2 ||3 ||1.5 ||800 ||N ||N || |
|Gris ||16.9 ||0 ||100 ||1484 ||4650 ||3.133423181 ||5779 ||N ||N ||0.96 |
|Exiled to the Void ||7.99 ||0.3 ||9 ||4 ||11 ||2.75 ||84 ||Y ||N || |
For the columns that are not self-explanatory:
- Launch Discount: Percent first week discount, 0.25 = 25% off
- Week Guess: This is my guess, made before the game launched as to how many Steam purchaser reviews it would have after exactly one week.
- Week Actual: The number of reviews that the game had after 1 week.
- 3 Month: The number of reviews that the game had after 3 months.
- Followers: The number of group followers the game had prior to launch. In some cases this recorded just before launch, in some cases up to a week before.
- Review score: The percent favorable score on Steam at the one month mark. Games needed a minimum of 20 reviews to be counted.
Question 1: Does Quality Predict Success?
There was a recent blog post stating that the #1 metric for indie games' success is how good it is.
Quality is obviously a subjective metric. The most obvious objective measure of quality for Steam games is their % Favorable Review score. This is the percentage of reviews by purchasers of the game that gave the game a positive rating. I excluded any game that did not have at least 20 user reviews in the first month, which limited the sample size to 56.
The (Pearson) correlation of a game's review score to its number of reviews three months after its release was -0.2. But 0.2 (plus or minus) isn't a very strong correlation at all. More importantly, Pearson correlation can be swayed if the data contains some big outliers. Looking at the actual games, we can see that the difference is an artifact of an outlier. Literally. Valve's Artifact by far had the most reviews after three months and had one of the lowest review scores (53% at the time). Removing this game from the data changed the correlation to essentially zero.
Spearman's Rho, an alternative correlation model that correlates rank position and minimizes the effect of huge outliers produced a similar result. Conclusion: If there is correlation between a game's quality (as measured by Steam review score) and first quarter sales (as measured by total review count), it is too subtle to be detected in this data.
Question 2: Do Demos, Early Access or Launch Discounts Affect Success/Failure?
Unfortunately, there were so few games that had demos prior to release (10) that only a very strong correlation would really tell us anything. As it happens, there was no meaningful correlation one way or another.
There were more Early Access titles (28), but again the correlation was too small to be meaningful.
More than half the titles had a launch week discount and there was actually a moderate negative correlation of -0.3 between having a launch discount and first week review count. However it appears that this is primarily the result of the tendency of AAA titles (which sell the most copies) to not do launch discounts. Removing the titles that likely grossed over a $1 million in the first week reduced the correlation to basically zero. Conclusion: Insufficient data. No clear correlation between demos, Early Access or launch discount and review counts: if they help or hurt the effect is not consistent enough to be seen here.
Question 3: Does pre-launch awareness (i.e., Steam followers) predict success?
You can see the number of "followers" for any game on Steam by searching for its automatically-created Community Group
. Prior to launch, this is a good rough indicator of market awareness.
The correlation between group followers shortly before launch and review count at 3 months was 0.89. That's a very strong positive correlation. The rank correlation was also high (0.85) suggesting that this wasn't the result of a few highly anticipated games.
Save for a single outlier (discussed later), the ratio of 3 month review counts to pre-launch followers ranged from 0 (for the handful of games that never received any reviews) to 1.8, with a median value of 0.1. If you have 1000 followers just prior to launch, then at the end of the first quarter you should expect "about" 100 reviews.
One thing I noticed was that there were a few games that had follower counts that seemed too high compared to secondary indicators of market awareness, such as discussion forum threads and Twitter engagement. After some investigation I came to the conclusion that pre-launch key activations are treated as followers by Steam. If a game gave away a lot of Steam keys before launch (say as Kickstarter rewards or part of beta testing) this would cause the game to appear to have more followers than it had gained "organically." Conclusion: Organic followers prior to launch are a strong predictor of a game's eventual success.
Question 4: What about price?
The correlation between price and review count at 3 month is 0.36, which is moderate correlation. I'm not sure how useful that data point is: it is somewhat obvious that higher budget games have larger marketing budgets.
There is a correlation between price and review score of -0.41. It seems likely that players do factor price into their reviews and a game priced at $60 has a higher bar to clear to earn a thumbs up review than a game priced at $10.
Question 5: Do first week sales predict first quarter results?
The correlation between number of reviews after 1 week and number of reviews after 3 months was 0.99. The Spearman correlation was 0.97. This is the highest correlation I found in the data.
Excluding games that sold very few copies (fewer than 5 reviews after the first week), most games had around twice as many reviews after 3 months as they did after 1 week. This suggests that games sell about as many copies in their first week as they do in the next 12 weeks combined. The vast majority of games had a tail ratio (ratio of reviews at 3 months to 1 week) of between 1.3 to 3.2.
I have seen a number of questions from developers whose game had a poor launch on Steam and wanted to know what they can do to improve sales. While I'm certain post-launch marketing can have an effect on continuing sales, your first week does seem to set hard bounds on your results. Conclusion: ALL SIGNS POINT TO YES
Question 6: Does Quality Help with a Game's "Tail"?
As discussed in the last question while first week sales are very strongly correlated with first quarter, there's still quite a wide range of ratios. Defining a game's Tail Ratio
as the ratio of reviews after 3 months to after 1 week, the lowest value was 0.95 for "Pro Fishing Simulator" which actually managed to lose 1 review. The highest ratio was 6.9, an extreme outlier that I'll talk about later. It is perhaps not a coincidence that the worst tail had a Steam score of 22% and the best tail had a Steam score of 96%.
The overall correlation between the Tail Ratio and Steam score was 0.42. Conclusion: Even though there is no clear correlation between quality and overall review count/sales, there is a moderate correlation between a game's review score and its tail. This suggests that "good games" do better in the long run than "bad games," but the effect is small compared to the more important factor of pre-launch awareness.
Question 7: Is it possible to predict a game's success before launch without knowing its wishlists?
While I was compiling the data for each game, sometime prior to its scheduled launch date, I would make a prediction of how many reviews I thought it would receive in its first week and add that prediction to the spreadsheet.
The #1 factor I used in making my prediction was group follower count. In some cases I would adjust my prediction if I thought that value was off, using secondary sources such as Steam forum activity and Twitter engagement.
The correlation between my guess and the actual value was 0.96, which is a very strong correlation. As you can see in the data, the predictions are, for the most part, in the right ballpack with a few cases where I was way off.
Based on my experience, multiplying the group follower count by 0.1 will, in most cases, give you a ballpark sense of the first
quarter review count. If a game doesn't have at least one question in the discussion forum for every 100 followers, that may indicate that there are large number of "inorganic" followers and you may need to adjust your estimate. Conclusion: Yes, with a few exceptions, using follower data and other indicators you can predict first week results approximately. Given the strong correlation between first week and quarter sales, it should also be possible to have a ballpark idea of first quarter results before launch.
Final Question: What about the outliers you mentioned?
There were a few games in the data that stood out significantly in one way or another.
Outlier #1: Overdungeon. This game had 77 group followers shortly before launch, a fairly small number and based solely on that number I would have expected fewer than a dozen reviews in the first week. It ended up with 86. Not only that, it had a strong tail and finished its first quarter with 572 reviews. This was by a wide margin the highest review count to follower ratio in the sample.
Based on the reviews, it appears to basically be Slay the Spire, but huge in Asia. 90% of the reviews seem to be in Japanese or Chinese. If anyone has some insight to this game's unusual apparent success, I'm very curious.
This seems to be the only clear example in the data of a game with minimal following prior to launch going on to having a solid first quarter.
Outlier #2: 11-11 Memories Retold. This game had 767 group followers shortly before launch, ten times as many as Overdungeon. That's still not a large number for even a small indie title. It had a fair amount going for it, though: it was directed by Yoan Fanise, who co-directed the critally acclaimed Valiant Hearts, a game with a similar theme. It was animated by Aardman Studios of "Wallace and Gromit" fame. Its publisher was Bandai Namco Europe, a not inexperienced publisher. The voice acting was by Sebastian Koch and Elijah Wood. It has dozens of good reviews in both gaming and traditional press. It currently has a 95% positive review rating on Steam.
Despite all that, nobody bought it. 24 hours after it came out it had literally zero reviews on Steam. One week after it came out it had just 10. Three months later it had demonstrated the largest tail in the data, but even then it had only climbed to 69 reviews. Now it's at about 100, an incredible tail ratio, but almost certainly a commercial failure.
This is a solid example that good game + good production values does necessarily equal good sales.
The big take-aways from this analysis are:
- The success of a game on Steam very strongly depends on its first week performance
- A game's first week performance is strongly correlated with its pre-launch market awareness
- Quality does not seem to strongly impact first week performance, but may have some positive effect on a game's "tail"
- All inferences regarding sales are dependent on the relationship between review counts and sales
Thanks for reading!
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According to the Pakistan Ministry of Defence Production’s (MoDP) “First Year Performance Report,” the country had registered $212.6 million US in defence exports from August 2018 to August 2019.
Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC) booked the highest value at $184.38 million US, which was followed by Pakistan Ordnance Factories (POF) at $7.13 million US and Heavy Industries Taxila (HIT) at $1.3 million US. In addition, private sector firms booked $19.36 million US in sales.
No additional breakdowns were provided by the MoDP. It is likely that PAC’s exports were fueled by co-production work for FC-1/JF-17 sales to Myanmar and/or Nigeria. Though an agreement was signed with Turkey for the sale of 52 Super Mushshak basic trainers, it is unclear if PAC has started manufacturing these aircraft.
-DRAP to launch countrywide drive against substandard, spurious medicines
The Drug Regulatory Authority of Pakistan (DRAP) is launching a countrywide campaign against substandard medicines, the PM’s Special Assistant on Health Dr. Zafar Mirza said while addressing the federal and provincial drug inspectors in Islamabad on Thursday.
He said a crackdown is being launched throughout the country to eradicate the menace of unregistered, spurious and sub-standard medicine. In addition to medicine quality, he added, DRAP will also take stern action against violation of fixed prices of medicines.
-Foreign exchange: SBP reserves increase $79m to $7.89b
The foreign exchange reserves held by the central bank increased 1.14% on a weekly basis, according to data released by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Thursday.
Earlier, the reserves had spiralled downwards, falling below the $7-billion mark, which raised concern over Pakistan’s ability to meet its financing requirements. However, financial assistance from the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia and other friendly nations helped shore up the foreign exchange reserves.
On October 18, the foreign currency reserves held by the SBP were recorded at $7,892.7 million, up $79 million compared with $7,813.7 million in the previous week. The report cited no reason for the increase in reserves, which stood below the $8-billion mark.
-Ease of business: Pakistan up 28 places on World Bank index
Pakistan has jumped up 28 places on the World Bank’s (WB) Ease of Doing Business Index and secured a place among the top 10 countries with the most improved business climate – a development that will greatly improve Islamabad’s image abroad,
Pakistan carried out six reforms that helped improving its ranking from 136 to 108, according to the WB’s annual flagship report, ‘Ease of Doing Business 2020’, released on Thursday. It turned out to be the sixth global reformer and first in South Asia that brought ease in doing business in the last one year.
The fewer are the regulations the better is the ranking on the index. The key to attain perfection is to cut the bureaucracy hindering business activities in the name of various regulations and procedures.
-CM approves Rs 500m for Punjab Housing & Town Planning Agency
Punjab Chief Minister Sardar Usman Buzdar has given approval of Rs 500 million for Punjab Housing & Town Planning Agency. He gave approval while presiding over a high-level meeting at CM Office here on Monday. During the meeting progress on Naya Pakistan Housing Project for low-income persons was reviewed and detailed briefing was also given to the participants on Naya Pakistan Housing strategy.
While addressing the meeting, Usman Buzdar said that obstacles should be removed in order to ensure completion of Naya Pakistan Housing Scheme and financial conditions of common man should be kept in mind while chalking out housing policy of the project. All out attention should be paid while constructing small houses in the province, he added. It has also been decided during the meeting to launch rural housing project in 17 model villages.
-KSE 100 gains 204 points amid improved sentiments
The benchmark KSE 100 Index depicted remarkable progress as it gained around 204 points and concluded at 33,861-level.It was a busy start to the week at the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) with earnings season hitting its peak, while volumes remained at par with previous weeks’ average.
Biggest single day investment in treasury bills in the previous week of estimated US $87.5 million, increasing total investment to US$440 million since July 2019 was the major rally point in the market sentiments.
The bourse recorded an intraday low of 33,572.36 soon after the commencement of the session. However, after regaining the momentum, the index marked its day’s high at 34,008.35 adding 350.89 points. It settled higher by 204.13 points at 33,861.59. The KMI 30 Index accumulated 386.53 points to settle at 55,155.92, while the KSE All Share Index managed to gain 86.13 points, ending at 24,543.78.
-Sindh to reserve 0.5% job quota for transgender persons
The Sindh Cabinet on Wednesday agreed to reserve 0.5 per cent quota in government jobs for transgender persons. “I want to bring transgender people into the mainstream,” said Sindh Chief Minister Syed Murad Ali Shah during the cabinet meeting. “We want to make them an asset for our society.”
CM Murad congratulated the transgender community on behalf of the cabinet and advised them to improve their education. Around 41,000 positions are vacant in different government departments across Sindh out of which 206 will be given to transgender people.
A spokesperson from the chief minister’s house stated that out of the 41,000 available jobs 16,000 positions will be filled this fiscal year. Rest of the positions will be filled in the period of next three years.
-Malaysia's Mahathir stands by Kashmir comments despite India palm oil boycott
Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad said on Tuesday he would not retract his criticism of New Delhi’s actions in occupied Kashmir despite Indian traders calling for an unprecedented boycott of Malaysian palm oil.
The impasse could exacerbate what Mahathir described as a trade war between the world’s second biggest producer and exporter of the commodity and its biggest buyer so far this year.
India’s top vegetable oil trade body on Monday asked its members to stop buying Malaysian palm oil after Mahathir said at the United Nations General Assembly last month that India had “invaded and occupied” Kashmir.
-“World’s two major companies setting up solar panel plants in Pakistan”
Federal Minister for Science and Technology Fawad Chaudhry announced on Monday that the world’s two major solar panel firms will establish their plants in Pakistan. The minister tweeted saying “good news gets lost in political plays, yet I am very happy that the world’s two major companies are setting up solar panel’s plants in Pakistan.”
Chaudhry added that China’s second-largest Lithium battery producer will also set up its workshop in Pakistan. The Lithium battery-powered buses will also be manufactured in Pakistan, the tweet further said. The Minister for Science and Technology was recently on a visit to Beijing where he met various Chinese officials and the country’s business leaders.
-Pakistan Navy organizes free medical camp in Balochistan
Navy organized a free medical camp in the village Dam of Balochistan in collaboration with Sahil and Ulfat welfare foundations. According to the spokesperson of Pakistan Navy, specialist doctors of surgical, medical, skin, gynecology, child and general medically inspected patients at the camp. Over 700 patients were provided with free medical treatment, medicines and ordinary surgical facilities.
-Lahore to get Tram service soon
Citizens of Lahore are getting a modern-day tram service soon, based on the famous British-era tram service. In this regard, the Punjab Transport Department has inked an agreement with CRSC International, a Chinese company specializing in rail transportation control systems, and Inkon Group of the Czech Republic.
The development of the project is divided into several phases. In the first phase, a 35 km track will be constructed on Canal Road, Lahore. Up to 50 trams will run on this track. Once operational, the trams will be able to carry 35,000 passengers in 1 hour. The trams will be powered through electricity and batteries. A single tram will have a service life of around 40 years. 2 tram depots will be constructed at different locations as well.
-10 Pakistani Universities Ranked Among the World’s Best in ‘University Impact Rankings 2019’
Ten Pakistani universities have been ranked among the top universities in the world in the Times Higher Education (THE)’s list. THE is a weekly UK-based magazine that issues its annual list of world’s most influential universities.
The list called ‘University Impact Rankings 2019’ has included 10 Pakistani varsities in different categories, including Gender Equality, Good Health and Well-being, Quality Education, Decent Work, Economic Growth, and others. According to the magazine, the rankings assess universities against the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals.
-PM Imran Khan inaugurates China-Hub Power Generation Plant in Balochistan
Prime Minister (PM) Imran Khan has said that Pakistan is moving forward through China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) projects. Addressing inaugural ceremony of China Hub Power Generation Plant in Balochistan, he said this is the first joint project under the CPEC umbrella and he is very happy after inaugurating it.
“The government will facilitate joint collaboration between Pakistani and Chinese businesses in various sectors.”, he said. PM Imran Khan said with the help of coal reserves in Thar, Pakistan can generate huge amount of electricity, which can be enough for at least 100 years.
-Punjab Forest Department develops ‘record keeping’ mechanism
Department of Forest Punjab is managing 1.6 million acres of forest land area – 67 per cent of the entire forest land area in Punjab – under the Geographic Information System (GIS), Pakistan Today learnt reliably on Friday. The program enabled the forests department to ensure sound management and introduce state of the art record-keeping and mapping methods.
‘Development of GIS-Based Forest Management Information System in Punjab’ was approved at PC-1 with a cost of Rs75 million and a gestation period of 36 months (2016-2019) has allowed for transfer of all forest resources and inventories into IT-based inventory systems and achieved extensive field surveys, rapid data collection and its processing for development of the forestry sector on efficient lines.
-Hutchison Port Holdings announces $240m investment in Pakistan
Prime Minister Imran Khan has welcomed $240 million foreign investment from Hutchison Port Holdings, a Hong Kong-based port operator. A delegation of Hutchison Port Holdings, led by its Group Managing Director Eric Ip, called on Prime Minister Imran Khan on Tuesday. Other delegation members included HPH Middle East & Africa Managing Director Andy Tsoi and Middle East & Africa Business Director Eric Ng.
Maritime Affairs Minister Syed Ali Haider Zaidi, Adviser to PM on Commerce Abdul Razzaq Dawood, Special Assistant to PM on Overseas Pakistanis Syed Zulfiqar Abbas Bukhari, Ambassador-at-Large for Foreign Investment Ali Jehangir Siddiqui and Board of Investment Chairman Zubair Haider Gilani were also present on the occasion. Group Managing Director Eric Ip apprised the prime minister of Hutchison’s fresh investment into Pakistan approximating $240 million which will enhance the new container terminal capacity at the Karachi Port, and increase Hutchison Ports’ total investment in Pakistan to $1 billion.
-Punjab's tax collection jumps 44%
Punjab’s tax collection registered a 44% growth to Rs77 billion in first quarter of the ongoing fiscal year compared to the corresponding period of previous year, despite tough conditions of the federal government for the provinces to get a share in the federal divisible pool of resources. Punjab Finance Minister Makhdoom Hashim Jawan Bakht disclosed this at a review meeting of the Finance Department on Monday.
The meeting was briefed that despite the financial backlog left by the previous government, the current government gave a surplus budget of Rs233 billion in order to meet financial requirements of the federal government to comply with conditions of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) loan programme.
-‘SECP recognised as 7th most effective regulator in world’
The Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP) has been recognised as the “7th most effective regulator” by the World Economic Forum in its ‘Global Competitiveness Report-2019’.
“Pakistan was ranked as the 52nd most dynamic economy in the world. The country secured this by improving 15 points from last year, as it stood at 67th in 2018,” said a statement issued by Mishal Pakistan, Country Partner at WEF’s Institute of the Future of Economic Progress System Initiative, on Wednesday. “The progress of Pakistan’s competitiveness was due to the achievements made during the last 12 months.”
The most effective improvements were made due to the initiative and strategies adopted by the apex regulator for the corporate sector and the capital markets; supervision and regulation of insurance, non-banking financial companies and private pension schemes. The SECP improved Pakistan’s competitiveness rankings by improving the “number of days to start a business”, where Pakistan was ranked at the 90th position compared with 96th in 2018.
-Pakistan China bilateral trade crosses $19 billion, highest ever in history
Pakistan Ambassador to China , Naghmana Hashmi has said the bilateral trade volume between Pakistan and China has now touched US $ 19.08 billion and both countries aimed to raise it further.
“The bilateral trade volume between Pakistan and China has now touched US$ 19.08. We aim to raise it further,” Ambassador Hashmi said joint ventures in defence production have led to the manufacture of the MBT 2000 Al-Khalid Tank and JF-17 Thunder, a fighter aircraft. “On the diplomatic front, the two countries are committed to protecting and promoting multilateralism and upholding the United Nations (UN)Charter, while our cooperation has extended to science and technology, socioeconomic sectors and nuclear cooperation for peaceful purposes,” she added.
-Foreign Company Agrees to Drop $6 Billion Penalty, Re-Invest in Reko Diq: Reports
The International Center of Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID) had slapped the country with a $6 billion penalty for revoking the contract without prior knowledge back in 2009. Soon after the development, the Prime Minister had empowered his financial team to contact the executives of the Tethyan Copper Company (TCC) to reach an out-of-court settlement and avoid the penalty.
Reportedly, after the Pakistan authority’s approach, the company has not only agreed to take back the penalty but has also agreed to invest in the project again. As per media reports, PM Imran Khan contacted the TCC management and discussed the prospects of the matter. He assured the company his full support if they wanted to revise the investment plan for the project. The company will reportedly withdraw its appeal from the ICSID, while Pakistan will compensate for their damages due to the cancelation of the contract.
-Current account deficit shrinks massive 64pc
The country’s current account deficit (cad) in the first quarter of current fiscal year declined by a huge 64 per cent mainly on the back of a 21pc reduction in the imports bill.
The State Bank’s latest data issued on Friday showed the current account deficit for July-September FY20 clocked in at $1.548 billion compared to $4.287bn in the same period last fiscal year; a decline of $2.739bn.
The reduced current account deficit is a positive omen for the government, which is struggling with slow economic growth and high inflation. However, despite massive decline in rupee’s value, the country’s exports have failed to register any noticeable increase during the period.
-Food imports down 24pc, exports up 14pc in Q1 FY20
Food group imports into the country during the first quarter of the current financial year (July-Sept 2019-20) decreased considerably by 24.7pc, whereas exports increased by 13.98pc compared with the corresponding period of last year.
The import of food commodities into the country during the period under review came down from $1.45 billion to $1 billion, whereas the exports increased from $864 million to $984.7 million, according to latest data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).
-Chinese Smartphone Company Realme to build mobile phone manufacturing factory in Pakistan
Chinese company Realme's Director of Marketing in Pakistan Mr He Shunzi in an interview disclosed that Realme is planning to set up the mobile phone manufacturing factory in Pakistan. He told that company is inspecting locations in Islamabad, Peshawar, and Faisalabad Industrial Estate for suitable land. Pakistani mobile market offers guaranteed capital as Realme ranked top five android brands in Pakistan in less than nine months, capturing 8% of total market share, he added.
-Chinese Coal Giant Wants to Convert Thar’s Coal to Diesel
China’s Shenhua Ningxia Coal Industry Group will help convert Thar’s coal into oil and the talks between the two parties are underway. The Shenhua Ningxia Coal Industry Group is a subsidiary of China’s biggest coal producer, the Shenhua Group and the company already has the world’s largest plant for converting coal into diesel, with an annual production capacity of 4 million tons in Ningxia in its portfolio.
The agreement, if signed, will be a ‘game-changer’ for Pakistan, believes Adviser to Prime Minister on Petroleum Nadeem Babar, who accompanied Imran Khan on his recent visit to China. The Pakistani delegation held talks with the Shenhua Group during the trip:
-In a positive development, Pakistan projected among top 20 rising economic growth engines of the World
Pakistan projected among 20 top rising economic growth engines of the World that would dominate the global growth in next 5 years. Pakistan has been projected as one of 20 countries that will dominate global growth in five years time in 2024, an assessment made by Bloomberg using data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
-In a positive development, Pakistan textile exports register increase
Textile exports from the country increased by 2.95pc during the first quarter of the current fiscal year (July-Sept FY20) compared with the corresponding period of the last fiscal year. The textile exports during the period under review were recorded at $3,371.974 million as against the exports of $3,275.303 million during July-September 2018-19, according to latest data by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).
The textile commodities that contributed to the positive growth included raw cotton, exports of which grew by 53.65pc, from $7.047 million to $10.828 million. Similarly, the exports of yarn (other than cotton yarn) increased by 21.95pc, from $7.759 million last year to $9.462 million, while that of knitwear surged by 11.14pc, from $701.393 million to $779.548 million.
-Kartarpur Corridor will open to public on November 9: PM Imran
Prime Minister Imran Khan on Sunday announced that Pakistan will inaugurate the Kartarpur Corridor on November 9. The premier’s announcement came via a Facebook post in which he said that construction work on the Pakistani side had entered the final stage. “Pakistan is all set to open its doors for Sikhs from all across the globe,” he wrote. “World’s largest Gurdwara will be visited by Sikhs from across India and other parts of the world,” he said.
-'$1.2b penalty in Karkey case likely to be waived'
Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) leader and senior lawyer Babar Awan has said that the $1.2 billion penalty that Pakistan has to pay to Turkey’s Karkey rental power plant is likely to be waived.
“International institutions, through high-level backdoor contacts, have agreed to waive off the penalty. This is very good news for Pakistan,” said Awan while addressing the media on Friday. “International institutions have shown their trust in Prime Minister Imran Khan,” he added.
-Punjab Govt to Introduce a Unified Tax Collection System
Punjab government is contemplating the introduction of a unified tax collection system in the province. The unified system will streamline the tax collection process and facilitate the taxpayers. At the moment, Punjab Revenue Department, Excise and Taxation Department, and local administrations collect taxes in Punjab. On Sunday, Finance Minister of Punjab, Makhdoom Hashim Jawan Bakht, headed a meeting of Punjab Revenue Authority (PRA). Bakht said that a special tax management unit will be set up at the Punjab finance department that will unify tax collection all across the country.
-PM To Launch Clean Green Pakistan Index for Multiple Cities
Prime Minister’s Adviser on Climate Change, Malik Amin Aslam, said that Imran Khan will launch the Clean Green Pakistan Index (CGPI) at a grand launching ceremony on October 30. The initiative is aimed at introducing competition among cities on various indicators, including public access to clean drinking water, safe sanitation, effective solid waste management, and tree plantation.
The prime minister will announce a six-month competition among 19 cities of Punjab and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa provinces, he added. The adviser said that after six months, these cities will be ranked again and those with prominent progress will be rewarded with special federal and provincial government funds and more cities will be joining the competition.
-PM Khan Will Lay The Foundation of Baba Guru Nanak University on Oct. 28
Prime Minister Imran Khan is going to lay the foundation stone of Baba Guru Nanak University on October 28. The establishment of this university in Nankana Sahib was announced earlier this year when PM Khan was in the town for a Spring Tree Plantation Campaign.
-Sindh govt invites bids for Dhabeji SEZ
The Sindh government has launched the well-connected Dhabeji Special Economic Zone in district Thatta near Port Qasim, according to a statement issued on Monday. In this connection, the Sindh Economic Zones Management Company (SEZMC), being the provincial SEZ custodian, has invited proposals for the development and operation of Dhabeji project through an advertisement published in leading national and international newspapers.
Dhabeji SEZ was highlighted in the recent meeting of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) Joint Working Group on Industrial Cooperation. The senior officials of China’s National Development Reforms Commission (NDRC) appreciated the Sindh government on the progress made so far. The Sindh government launched the project through an international competitive bidding process as a build-up to the upcoming 10th Joint Coordination Committee (JCC) meeting between China and Pakistan, which would be held next month.
-Rice exports surge 51pc in first quarter FY20
Rice exports from the country during the first quarter of the financial year 2019-20 grew by 50.76pc as compared to the corresponding period last year. During the July-September period, about 839,356 metric tonnes of rice, worth $470.584 million, were exported as compared the exports of 551.5,86 metric tonnes, valuing $312.147 million, during the same period of FY19.
According to data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, the exports of basmati rice increased by 47.29pc, as 212,873 metric tonnes of basmati rice ($194.669 million) were exported during the first quarter of FY20, as compared the 127,669 metric tonnes ($132.166 million) in the same period of last year. Meanwhile, 34,090 metric tonnes of fish and fish preparations worth $79.549 million were also exported in the period under review as compared to the exports of 25,859 metric tonnes valuing $67.294 million during the same period of last year.
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