Forex trading: taxation in the UK explained Currency.com
Tax on Trading Income in the UK - Day trading taxes explained
Is Forex Trading Tax Free in the UK? - Forex Education
Need help understanding taxes on the forex UK
I have been trading on the practice account on the trading 212 app. It has got me interested and I was wondering how taxing would work I haven’t found a real answer yet. I would only be trading on the forex as I have found it to have the best turn around.
Forex trading, tax and getting a mortgage in the UK
Hopefully this is ok to post here but I was wondering if there are any people here, particularly from the UK who have had sufficient success for forex to form the large part or all of their income and what were the implications for tax/NI. Finally, were there any issues getting a mortgage? I know if you are a successful sports trader you can provide all the Betfair statements you like showing consistent income but you would get laughed out the bank so I wondered if there same was true with forex.
Forex Trading UK- Tax free or not? Does it need to be with a UK broker? Does it need to be a spreadbet?
Hi All, I'm looking for advice. I have started making some money doing forex trading. I use IC markets as a broker. I am resident in the UK and forex trading is my second income. I haven't withdrawn anything from my trading account. I am really confused about the "forex is tax free" condition in the UK.... so a few questions and really grateful for some answers! 1: Do I need to be registered with a UK broker in order to fall under the "forex trading is tax free, as long as it's second income" or does IC markets work for me? 2: Does it need to be a spread bet account? only a handful of companies do this, and they give a leverage of 1:30. I need 1:500 as my trading account isn't the word's biggest, tens of thousands gbp. 3: Do I need to file some sort of tax return? I may have more questions as you lovely, learned people give me answers! Thank you
Hi guys , started trading about a month ago and I started using a live account about 2 weeks ago. I’m from the UK, England as stated in the title . I am 16 years of age and I registered to the broker IC markets through using my brother in laws ID. He is with the bank Natwest and he opened up a separate bank account in his name for me to use with withdraw/deposit funds etc. but to get to the point , my question is will my brother In law(me) have to pay any tax on any of the money withdrawed from my brokerage balance. From reading online and asking peers I have been told that it is completely tax free but I would appreciate some official document if available to show my brother in law to clear up any uncertainty. Many thanks :) happy trading .
BE CAREFUL WHICH BROKER YOU CHOOSE! SERIOUSLY, what is YOUR opinion for LONG-TERM INVESTING using EToro VS Trading 212: Invest ? Or even Trading 212 ISA...
Now, I’ve been practicing with Trading 212 (both investing and trading) for years but didn’t start investing money because I was underage. DISCLAIMER: When I was younger, I thought day trading was “the way to go” to make a lot of money (for some people it is... for me it really isn’t). I luckily figured this out before I bought some “day trading guru’s course for ONLY $299”... fucking bargain btw👌🤯 ...not I started actually investing in March, and for whatever reason (can’t remember) I decided to go with EToro... BE WISE ON WHO YOU CHOOSE !
Let’s start with the NUMBER OF STOCKS.
Trading 212: Invest - 3012 stocks available Etoro - 2037 stocks available And the stocks that Etoro doesn’t have aren’t just foreign stocks like ones listed on the foreign stock markets like FSE or LSE. They also have US companies “missing”. This becomes very apparent when you find some “great” companies to invest in for the long term and they aren’t even listed. THIS IS ANOTHER THING - they also dictate who you can invest in. For example, I wanted to invest in Spire Healthcare back in March/April, and even though they have it listed, it won’t allow you buy any shares... STILL TO THIS DAY??? ( if anyone knows why, let me know down below please )
Trading 212: Invest - 446 EToro - 151 - although they do have ones like SPY, VOO and VTI
Trading 212: Invest - Min deposit - EUR 1, USD 1 Deposit fee - none min withdrawal fee - EUR 1, USD 1 Withdrawal fee - no fees Commission - commission free, unless you buy UK stocks, then you pay 0.5% stamp duty reserve tax because... the British Government can do what they want 🤷♂️ EToro - Min deposit - USD 200 - first deposit, afterwards USD 50 ( I never even realised this lol ) Deposit fee: none Min withdrawal amount: USD 30 Withdrawal fee: USD 5
•Trading 212: invest - as little as €1. MOST BUT NOT ALL shares can be bought fractionally as some have a min trade quantity of 1 share. •Etoro - min amount to open ANY POSITION is $50, defeats the purpose of fraction shares ???? 🤔 🚨——> Now there are a COUPLE ISSUES with this... But the main issue is a more PERSONAL ONE. I’m sick of having to think and buy my family things that don’t want or need for birthdays or Christmas... So I buy them a share, of a good company that I think is a good investment. Sometimes I DO NOT want to spend a minimum of $50 😂 Call me cheap lol but I’ve got pilot school to pay for... and it’s EXPENSIVE.
Social Trading -
Now Etoro does have CopyTrading. Personally I’ve never used it because I prefer to have an influence over who I invest in, whether it’s the right choice or not. But for some people, they prefer a more “hands-off” approach, so it is good for them. ANOTHER POSITIVE FOR ETORO - on their app for each company you can chat with other users, and people can post their latest thoughts and research on the company. Trading 212 doesn’t exactly have this but they do have a similar feature which is a forum separate to the app.
I personally prefer the layout of Trading 212, especially when looking into the graphs, or even trying to find out what your ROI is. It’s a much more user-friendly interface, in my opinion. Etoro doesn’t offer the ability to transfer open positions to another broker... which is shit. Trading 212 will be implementing the ability to transfer from/to other broker by the end of 2020 (supposedly). Also, Etoro’s customer service is actually really helpful, with their live chat feature. And doesn’t take too long to connect. ————————— Just to top it off - Trading 212: invest - you can get a free share worth up to £100 So IN MY OPINION I would 100% go with Trading 212 for INVESTING, and that’s why I’m switching I only invest, I DO NOT day trade, use CFDs, swing trade, trade commodities, trade forex or (currently) invest in cryptos This is why, imo, I believe Trading 212 is better than Etoro Let me know what your opinions are! Also let me know if I’ve missed anything
¿Replicar mi portfolio en otra divisa es una buena idea?
Estoy re-armando mi "lazy-portfolio" que básicamente va a consistir en IWDA + EIMI (entre ambos al 90%) y eventualmente en unos años AGGU (bonos, hasta el 10% e ir subiendo a medida que pasen los años). Mi objetivo es quedarme comprado de acá a 10 o 15 años COMO MINIMO y comprar todos los meses mi cuota de tickers. Como tenía armada una posición en VTI (all US market), al desarmarla me quedaron USD que usé para empezar a armar IWDA (USD) y acá me surgió una duda para la cual no encontré grandes fuentes de referencia. IWDA también cotiza en EUR, bajo otro ticker, y yo podría armar mi posición (o replicarla) en esta divisa, o simplemente quedarme en USD. Es el mismo caso para los otros dos tickers, todos cotizan en EUR y yo podría comprarlos en esta moneda. Mi método de fondeo al broker es en EUR ya que las transferencias SEPA me son mucho más baratas que las SWIFT, con lo cual si yo persiguiera un portfolio en USD, debería sumar un costo de FOREX para salir de mi banco (ya que mi dinero está en USD) y luego nuevamente pasar a USD en el broker para comprar el ticket de IWDA. Si bien las comisiones por estas transformaciones son "bajas", mi plan es a largo plazo y quiero intentar optimizarlo donde se pueda. Entonces, me surgieron estas dudas: 1 - ¿es mejor que evite el doble forex e ir directo al ticker en EUR? Este cotiza en el exchange de Amsterdan, pero yo entiendo que el ETF sigue igual domiciliado en Irlanda, con lo cual a nivel taxes sigue conviniendo, indistintamente de la moneda en la que compre el ticker. 2 - ¿Sería buena estrategia diversificar la divisa de este portfolio? Podría replicar mi posición de manera de que quede 50% en USD y 50% en EUR. A priori me suena que es mala idea por fees, pero quiero entender todo el panorama. Para poner un ejemplo, vi en otros subs gente "enojada" porque la ganancia por la suba del ticker de IWDA se la comió la caída del USD con respecto al EUR (siendo ellos residentes europeos). 3- Estoy en el fixed price tier de Interactive Brokers. Cada compra cuesta 5USD (precio fijo, no importa la cantidad) y de forex tendré entre 2/3 USD más. Y si no compro nada en un mes me cobran 10USD. Esto me hizo pensar que a la hora de rebalancear, quizas sería mejor idea tener un portfolio con solo dos ETF, como VWRA + AGGU. ¿Qué opinión les parece esto? Igual la pregunta 1 es válida para este caso también. Les dejo links a los diferentes ETFS: IWDA (todo el mercado en paises desarrollados): https://www.ishares.com/uk/individual/en/products/251882/ EIMI (todo el mercado en paises emergentes, es casi todo china): https://www.ishares.com/uk/individual/en/products/264659/ishares-msci-emerging-markets-imi-ucits-etf AGGU (bonos) https://www.ishares.com/uk/individual/en/products/291772/ishares-core-global-aggregate-bond-ucits-etf-fund VWRA (de Vanguard, todo el mercado, pero sigue otro indice) https://global.vanguard.com/portal/site/loadPDF?country=nl&docId=21869
Someone posted on here a few days ago asking about forex and forex trading in Kenya, I have gone through the responses and clearly, most people don’t have an idea. It is 3am in the morning and am in a good mood so let me make this post. This will be a comprehensive and lengthy post so grab a pen and paper and sit down. We’ll be here a while. FIRST OF ALL, who am I..? I am a forex trader, in Nairobi, Kenya..i have been actively involved in forex since I found out about it in Feb 2016 when I somehow ended up in a wealth creation seminar (lol) in pride inn Westlands, the one close to Mpaka Rd. Luckily for me, it was not one of those AIM global meetings or I’d be on Facebook selling God knows what those guys sell. I did not take it seriously till August of the same year and I have been active ever since. I don’t teach, mentor or sell a course or signals, I trade my own money. I am also posting from a throwaway account because I don’t want KRA on my ass. What the fuck is forex and forex trading. In simple plain English, forex is like the stock market but for currencies. Stock Market = Shares, forex = currencies. If you want more in-depth explanation, google is your friend. These currencies are pegged on specific countries, united states- dollar, UK- pound, euro zone- euro, Switzerland- Swiss franc, Kenya- Kenya shilling.. you get the point. Now, there are specific events and happenings between these economies that affect the movement and values of the currencies, driving their value (purchasing power up and down). Forex trading exploits these movements to make money. When the value is going up, we buy and vice versa (down –sell) Is forex trading illegal in Kenya? Is it a scam? Illegal, no. scam, no. All the banks in the world do it (KCB made about 4 billion from trading forex in 2019) Have there been scams involving forex in Kenya? Yes. Here is one that happened recently. This one is the most infamous one yet. Best believe that this is not the end of these type of scams because the stupidity, greed and gullibility of human beings is unfathomable. However, by the end of this post, I hope you won’t fall for such silliness. What next how do I make it work..? Am glad you asked. Generally, there are two ways to go about it. One, you teach yourself. This is the equivalent of stealing our dad’s car and hoping that the pedal you hit is the brake and not the accelerator. It is the route I took, it is the most rewarding and a huge ego boost when you finally make it on your own. Typically, this involves scouring the internet for hours upon hours going down rabbit holes, thinking you have made it telling all your friends how you will be a millionaire then losing all your money. Some people do not have the stomach for that. The second route is more practical, structured and smarter. First Learn the basics. There is a free online forex course at www.babypips.com/learn/forex this is merely an introductory course. Basically it is learning the parts of a car before they let you inside the car. Second, start building your strategy. By the time you are done with the babypips, you will have a feel of what the forex market is, what interests you, etc. Tip..Babypips has a lot of garbage. It is good for introductory purposes but not good for much else, pick whatever stick to you or jumps at you the first time. Nonsense like indicators should be ignored. The next step is now the most important. Developing the skill and building your strategy. As a beginner, you want to exhaust your naivety before jumping into the more advanced stuff. Eg can you identify a trend, what is a pair, what is position sizing, what is metatrader 4 and how to operate it, what news is good for a currency, when can I trade, what are the different trading sessions, what is technical analysis, what is market sentiment, what are bullish conditions what is emotion management, how does my psychology affect my trading (more on this later) an I a swing, scalper or day trader etc Mentors and forex courses.. you have probably seen people advertising how they can teach and mentor you on how to trade forex and charging so much money for it. Somehow it seems that these people are focused on the teaching than the trading. Weird, right..? Truth is trading is hard, teaching not quite. A common saying in the industry is “Those who can’t trade, teach” you want to avoid all these gurus on Facebook and Instagram, some are legit but most are not. Sifting the wheat from the chaff is hard but I did that for you. The info is available online on YouTube, telegram channels etc. am not saying not to spend money on a course, if you find a mentor whose style resonates with you and the course is reasonably priced, please, go ahead and buy..it will cut your learning curve in half. People are different. What worked for me might not work for you. Here are some nice YouTube channels to watch. These guys are legit..
After a short period of time, you will be able to sniff out bs teachers with relative ease. You will also discover some of your own and expand the list. Two tips, start with the oldest videos first and whichever of these resonates with you, stick with till the wheels fall off. How long will it take until things start making sense Give yourself time to grow and learn. This is all new to you and you are allowed to make mistakes, to fail and discover yourself. Realistically, depending on the effort you put in, you will not start seeing results until after 6 months. Could take longeshorter so there is no guarantee. Social media, Mentality, Psychology and Books Online, forex trading might not have the best reputation online because it takes hard work and scammers and gurus give it a bad name. However, try to not get sucked into the Instagram trader lifestyle as it is nowhere close to what the reality is. You will not make millions tomorrow or the day after, you might never even make it in this market. But that is the reality of life. Nothing is promised, nothing is guaranteed. Your mentality, beliefs and ego will be challenged in this market. You will learn things that will make you blood boil, you will ask yourself daily, how is this possible, why don’t they teach this in school..bla bla bla..it will be hard but growth is painful, if it wasn’t we’d all be billionaires. Take a break, take a walk, drink a glass of whatever you like or roll one..detox. Chill with your girl (or man) Gradually you will develop mental toughness that will set you up for life. Personally, I sorta ditched religion and picked up stoicism. Whatever works for you. Psychology, this is unfortunately one of the most neglected aspects of your personal development in this journey. Do you believe in yourself? Can you stand by your convictions when everyone is against you? Can you get up every day uncertain of the future? There will be moments where you will question yourself, am I even doing the right thing? the right way? It is normal and essential for your growth. People who played competitive sports have a natural advantage here. Remember the game is first won in your head then on the pitch. Books: ironically, books that helped me the most were the mindset books, Think and grow rich, trading for a living, 4 hour work week, the monk who sold his Ferrari..just google mindset and psychology books, most trading books are garbage. Watch and listen to people who have made it in the investing business. Ray Dalio, warren, Bill Ackman and Carl Icahn. This is turning out to be lengthier than I anticipated so I’ll try to be brief for the remaining parts. Brokers You will need to open up an account with a broker. Get a broker who is regulated. Australian ones (IC Market and Pepperstone) are both legit, reliable and regulated. Do your research. I’d avoid local ones because I’ve heard stories of wide spreads and liquidity problems. International brokers have never failed me. There are plenty brokers, there is no one size fits all recommendation. If it ain’t broke..don’t fix it. Money transfer. All brokers accept wire transfers, you might need to call your bank to authorize that, avoid Equity bank. Stanchart and Stanbic are alright. Large withdrawals $10k+ you will have to call them prior. Get Skrill and Neteller if you don’t like banks like me, set up a Bitcoin wallet for faster withdrawals, (Payoneer and Paypal are accepted by some brokers, just check with them.) How much money can I make..? I hate this question because people have perceived ceilings of income in their minds, eg 1 million ksh is too much to make per month or 10,000ksh is too little. Instead, work backwards. What % return did I make this month/ on this trade. Safaricom made 19.5% last year, if you make 20% you have outperformed them. If you reach of consistency where you can make x% per month on whatever money you have, then there are no limits to how much you can make. How much money do I need to start with..? Zero. You have all the resources above, go forth. There are brokers who provide free bonuses and withdraw-able profits. However, to make a fulltime income you will need some serious cash. Generally, 50,000 kes. You can start lower or higher but if you need say 20k to live comfortably and that is a 10% return per month, then you can do the math on how big your account should be. Of course things like compound interest come into play but that is dependent on your skill level. I have seen people do spectacular things with very little funds. Taxes..? Talk to a lawyer or an accountant. I am neither. Family? Friends? Unfortunately, people will not understand why you spend hundreds of hours watching strangers on the internet so it is best to keep it from them. Eventually you will make it work and they will come to your corner talking about how they always knew you’d make it. The journey will be lonely, make some trading buddies along the way. You’d be surprised at how easy it is when people are united by their circumstances (and stupidity) I have guys who are my bros from South Africa and Lebanon who I have never met but we came up together and are now homies. Join forums, ask questions and grow. That is the only way to learn. Ideally, a group of 5-10 friends committed to learning and growth is the best model. Pushing each other to grow and discovering together. Forex is real and you can do amazing things with it. It is not a get rich quick scheme. If you want a quick guaranteed income, get a job. And now it is 5am, fuck. This is oversimplified and leaves out many many aspects. Happy to answer any questions.
No, the British did not steal $45 trillion from India
This is an updated copy of the version on BadHistory. I plan to update it in accordance with the feedback I got. I'd like to thank two people who will remain anonymous for helping me greatly with this post (you know who you are) Three years ago a festschrift for Binay Bhushan Chaudhuri was published by Shubhra Chakrabarti, a history teacher at the University of Delhi and Utsa Patnaik, a Marxist economist who taught at JNU until 2010. One of the essays in the festschirt by Utsa Patnaik was an attempt to quantify the "drain" undergone by India during British Rule. Her conclusion? Britain robbed India of $45 trillion (or £9.2 trillion) during their 200 or so years of rule. This figure was immensely popular, and got republished in several major news outlets (here, here, here, here (they get the number wrong) and more recently here), got a mention from the Minister of External Affairs & returns 29,100 results on Google. There's also plenty of references to it here on Reddit. Patnaik is not the first to calculate such a figure. Angus Maddison thought it was £100 million, Simon Digby said £1 billion, Javier Estaban said £40 million see Roy (2019). The huge range of figures should set off some alarm bells. So how did Patnaik calculate this (shockingly large) figure? Well, even though I don't have access to the festschrift, she conveniently has written an article detailing her methodology here. Let's have a look.
How exactly did the British manage to diddle us and drain our wealth’ ? was the question that Basudev Chatterjee (later editor of a volume in the Towards Freedom project) had posed to me 50 years ago when we were fellow-students abroad.
This is begging the question.
After decades of research I find that using India’s commodity export surplus as the measure and applying an interest rate of 5%, the total drain from 1765 to 1938, compounded up to 2016, comes to £9.2 trillion; since $4.86 exchanged for £1 those days, this sum equals about $45 trillion.
This is completely meaningless. To understand why it's meaningless consider India's annual coconut exports. These are almost certainly a surplus but the surplus in trade is countered by the other country buying the product (indeed, by definition, trade surpluses contribute to the GDP of a nation which hardly plays into intuitive conceptualisations of drain). Furthermore, Dewey (2019) critiques the 5% interest rate.
She [Patnaik] consistently adopts statistical assumptions (such as compound interest at a rate of 5% per annum over centuries) that exaggerate the magnitude of the drain
The exact mechanism of drain, or transfers from India to Britain was quite simple.
Drain theory possessed the political merit of being easily grasped by a nation of peasants. [...] No other idea could arouse people than the thought that they were being taxed so that others in far off lands might live in comfort. [...] It was, therefore, inevitable that the drain theory became the main staple of nationalist political agitation during the Gandhian era.
The key factor was Britain’s control over our taxation revenues combined with control over India’s financial gold and forex earnings from its booming commodity export surplus with the world. Simply put, Britain used locally raised rupee tax revenues to pay for its net import of goods, a highly abnormal use of budgetary funds not seen in any sovereign country.
The issue with figures like these is they all make certain methodological assumptions that are impossible to prove. From Roy in Frankema et al. (2019):
the "drain theory" of Indian poverty cannot be tested with evidence, for several reasons. First, it rests on the counterfactual that any money saved on account of factor payments abroad would translate into domestic investment, which can never be proved. Second, it rests on "the primitive notion that all payments to foreigners are "drain"", that is, on the assumption that these payments did not contribute to domestic national income to the equivalent extent (Kumar 1985, 384; see also Chaudhuri 1968). Again, this cannot be tested. [...] Fourth, while British officers serving India did receive salaries that were many times that of the average income in India, a paper using cross-country data shows that colonies with better paid officers were governed better (Jones 2013).
Indeed, drain theory rests on some very weak foundations. This, in of itself, should be enough to dismiss any of the other figures that get thrown out. Nonetheless, I felt it would be a useful exercise to continue exploring Patnaik's take on drain theory.
The East India Company from 1765 onwards allocated every year up to one-third of Indian budgetary revenues net of collection costs, to buy a large volume of goods for direct import into Britain, far in excess of that country’s own needs.
So what's going on here? Well Roy (2019) explains it better:
Colonial India ran an export surplus, which, together with foreign investment, was used to pay for services purchased from Britain. These payments included interest on public debt, salaries, and pensions paid to government offcers who had come from Britain, salaries of managers and engineers, guaranteed profts paid to railway companies, and repatriated business profts. How do we know that any of these payments involved paying too much? The answer is we do not.
So what was really happening is the government was paying its workers for services (as well as guaranteeing profits - to promote investment - something the GoI does today Dalal (2019), and promoting business in India), and those workers were remitting some of that money to Britain. This is hardly a drain (unless, of course, Indian diaspora around the world today are "draining" it). In some cases, the remittances would take the form of goods (as described) see Chaudhuri (1983):
It is obvious that these debit items were financed through the export surplus on merchandise account, and later, when railway construction started on a large scale in India, through capital import. Until 1833 the East India Company followed a cumbersome method in remitting the annual home charges. This was to purchase export commodities in India out of revenue, which were then shipped to London and the proceeds from their sale handed over to the home treasury.
While Roy's earlier point argues better paid officers governed better, it is honestly impossible to say what part of the repatriated export surplus was a drain, and what was not. However calling all of it a drain is definitely misguided. It's worth noting that Patnaik seems to make no attempt to quantify the benefits of the Raj either, Dewey (2019)'s 2nd criticism:
she [Patnaik] consistently ignores research that would tend to cut the economic impact of the drain down to size, such as the work on the sources of investment during the industrial revolution (which shows that industrialisation was financed by the ploughed-back profits of industrialists) or the costs of empire school (which stresses the high price of imperial defence)
Since tropical goods were highly prized in other cold temperate countries which could never produce them, in effect these free goods represented international purchasing power for Britain which kept a part for its own use and re-exported the balance to other countries in Europe and North America against import of food grains, iron and other goods in which it was deficient.
Re-exports necessarily adds value to goods when the goods are processed and when the goods are transported. The country with the largest navy at the time would presumably be in very good stead to do the latter.
The British historians Phyllis Deane and WA Cole presented an incorrect estimate of Britain’s 18th-19th century trade volume, by leaving out re-exports completely. I found that by 1800 Britain’s total trade was 62% higher than their estimate, on applying the correct definition of trade including re-exports, that is used by the United Nations and by all other international organisations.
While interesting, and certainly expected for such an old book, re-exporting necessarily adds value to goods.
When the Crown took over from the Company, from 1861 a clever system was developed under which all of India’s financial gold and forex earnings from its fast-rising commodity export surplus with the world, was intercepted and appropriated by Britain. As before up to a third of India’s rising budgetary revenues was not spent domestically but was set aside as ‘expenditure abroad’.
So, what does this mean? Britain appropriated all of India's earnings, and then spent a third of it aboard? Not exactly. She is describing home charges see Roy (2019) again:
Some of the expenditures on defense and administration were made in sterling and went out of the country. This payment by the government was known as the Home Charges. For example, interest payment on loans raised to finance construction of railways and irrigation works, pensions paid to retired officers, and purchase of stores, were payments in sterling. [...] almost all money that the government paid abroad corresponded to the purchase of a service from abroad. [...] The balance of payments system that emerged after 1800 was based on standard business principles.India bought something and paid for it.State revenues were used to pay for wages of people hired abroad, pay for interest on loans raised abroad, and repatriation of profits on foreign investments coming into India. These were legitimate market transactions.
Indeed, if paying for what you buy is drain, then several billions of us are drained every day.
The Secretary of State for India in Council, based in London, invited foreign importers to deposit with him the payment (in gold, sterling and their own currencies) for their net imports from India, and these gold and forex payments disappeared into the yawning maw of the SoS’s account in the Bank of England.
It should be noted that India having two heads was beneficial, and encouraged investment per Roy (2019):
The fact that the India Office in London managed a part of the monetary system made India creditworthy, stabilized its currency, and encouraged foreign savers to put money into railways and private enterprise in India. Current research on the history of public debt shows that stable and large colonies found it easier to borrow abroad than independent economies because the investors trusted the guarantee of the colonist powers.
Against India’s net foreign earnings he issued bills, termed Council bills (CBs), to an equivalent rupee value. The rate (between gold-linked sterling and silver rupee) at which the bills were issued, was carefully adjusted to the last farthing, so that foreigners would never find it more profitable to ship financial gold as payment directly to Indians, compared to using the CB route. Foreign importers then sent the CBs by post or by telegraph to the export houses in India, that via the exchange banks were paid out of the budgeted provision of sums under ‘expenditure abroad’, and the exporters in turn paid the producers (peasants and artisans) from whom they sourced the goods.
Sunderland (2013) argues CBs had two main roles (and neither were part of a grand plot to keep gold out of India):
Council bills had two roles. They firstly promoted trade by handing the IO some control of the rate of exchange and allowing the exchange banks to remit funds to India and to hedge currency transaction risks. They also enabled the Indian government to transfer cash to England for the payment of its UK commitments.
The United Nations (1962) historical data for 1900 to 1960, show that for three decades up to 1928 (and very likely earlier too) India posted the second highest merchandise export surplus in the world, with USA in the first position. Not only were Indians deprived of every bit of the enormous international purchasing power they had earned over 175 years, even its rupee equivalent was not issued to them since not even the colonial government was credited with any part of India’s net gold and forex earnings against which it could issue rupees. The sleight-of-hand employed, namely ‘paying’ producers out of their own taxes, made India’s export surplus unrequited and constituted a tax-financed drain to the metropolis, as had been correctly pointed out by those highly insightful classical writers, Dadabhai Naoroji and RCDutt.
It doesn't appear that others appreciate their insight Roy (2019):
K. N. Chaudhuri rightly calls such practice ‘confused’ economics ‘coloured by political feelings’.
Surplus budgets to effect such heavy tax-financed transfers had a severe employment–reducing and income-deflating effect: mass consumption was squeezed in order to release export goods. Per capita annual foodgrains absorption in British India declined from 210 kg. during the period 1904-09, to 157 kg. during 1937-41, and to only 137 kg by 1946.
If even a part of its enormous foreign earnings had been credited to it and not entirely siphoned off, India could have imported modern technology to build up an industrial structure as Japan was doing.
This is, unfortunately, impossible to prove. Had the British not arrived in India, there is no clear indication that India would've united (this is arguably more plausible than the given counterfactual1). Had the British not arrived in India, there is no clear indication India would not have been nuked in WW2, much like Japan. Had the British not arrived in India, there is no clear indication India would not have been invaded by lizard people, much like Japan. The list continues eternally. Nevertheless, I will charitably examine the given counterfactual anyway. Did pre-colonial India have industrial potential? The answer is a resounding no. From Gupta (1980):
This article starts from the premise that while economic categories - the extent of commodity production, wage labour, monetarisation of the economy, etc - should be the basis for any analysis of the production relations of pre-British India, it is the nature of class struggles arising out of particular class alignments that finally gives the decisive twist to social change. Arguing on this premise, and analysing the available evidence, this article concludes that there was little potential for industrial revolution before the British arrived in India because, whatever might have been the character of economic categories of that period,the class relations had not sufficiently matured to develop productive forces and the required class struggle for a 'revolution' to take place.
Yet all of this did not amount to an economic situation comparable to that of western Europe on the eve of the industrial revolution. Her technology - in agriculture as well as manufacturers - had by and large been stagnant for centuries. [...] The weakness of the Indian economy in the mid-eighteenth century, as compared to pre-industrial Europe was not simply a matter of technology and commercial and industrial organization. No scientific or geographical revolution formed part of the eighteenth-century Indian's historical experience. [...] Spontaneous movement towards industrialisation is unlikely in such a situation.
So now we've established India did not have industrial potential, was India similar to Japan just before the Meiji era? The answer, yet again, unsurprisingly, is no. Japan's economic situation was not comparable to India's, which allowed for Japan to finance its revolution. From Yasuba (1986):
All in all, the Japanese standard of living may not have been much below the English standard of living before industrialization, and both of them may have been considerably higher than the Indian standard of living. We can no longer say that Japan started from a pathetically low economic level and achieved a rapid or even "miraculous" economic growth. Japan's per capita income was almost as high as in Western Europe before industrialization, and it was possible for Japan to produce surplus in the Meiji Period to finance private and public capital formation.
The circumstances that led to Meiji Japan were extremely unique. See Tomlinson (1985):
Most modern comparisons between India and Japan, written by either Indianists or Japanese specialists, stress instead that industrial growth in Meiji Japan was the product of unique features that were not reproducible elsewhere. [...] it is undoubtably true that Japan's progress to industrialization has been unique and unrepeatable
So there you have it. Unsubstantiated statistical assumptions, calling any number you can a drain & assuming a counterfactual for no good reason gets you this $45 trillion number. Hopefully that's enough to bury it in the ground. 1. Several authors have affirmed that Indian identity is a colonial artefact. For example seeRajan 1969:
Perhaps the single greatest and most enduring impact of British rule over India is that it created an Indian nation, in the modern political sense. After centuries of rule by different dynasties overparts of the Indian sub-continent, and after about 100 years of British rule, Indians ceased to be merely Bengalis, Maharashtrians,or Tamils, linguistically and culturally.
But then, it would be anachronistic to condemn eighteenth-century Indians, who served the British, as collaborators, when the notion of 'democratic' nationalism or of an Indian 'nation' did not then exist.[...]Indians who fought for them, differed from the Europeans in having a primary attachment to a non-belligerent religion, family and local chief, which was stronger than any identity they might have with a more remote prince or 'nation'.
Chakrabarti, Shubra & Patnaik, Utsa (2018). Agrarian and other histories: Essays for Binay Bhushan Chaudhuri. Colombia University Press Hickel, Jason (2018). How the British stole $45 trillion from India. The Guardian Bhuyan, Aroonim & Sharma, Krishan (2019). The Great Loot: How the British stole $45 trillion from India. Indiapost Monbiot, George (2020). English Landowners have stolen our rights. It is time to reclaim them. The Guardian Tsjeng, Zing (2020). How Britain Stole $45 trillion from India with trains | Empires of Dirt. Vice Chaudhury, Dipanjan (2019). British looted $45 trillion from India in today’s value: Jaishankar. The Economic Times Roy, Tirthankar (2019). How British rule changed India's economy: The Paradox of the Raj. Palgrave Macmillan Patnaik, Utsa (2018). How the British impoverished India. Hindustan Times Tuovila, Alicia (2019). Expenditure method. Investopedia Dewey, Clive (2019). Changing the guard: The dissolution of the nationalist–Marxist orthodoxy in the agrarian and agricultural history of India. The Indian Economic & Social History Review Chandra, Bipan et al. (1989). India's Struggle for Independence, 1857-1947. Penguin Books Frankema, Ewout & Booth, Anne (2019). Fiscal Capacity and the Colonial State in Asia and Africa, c. 1850-1960. Cambridge University Press Dalal, Sucheta (2019). IL&FS Controversy: Centre is Paying Up on Sovereign Guarantees to ADB, KfW for Group's Loan. TheWire Chaudhuri, K.N. (1983). X - Foreign Trade and Balance of Payments (1757–1947). Cambridge University Press Sunderland, David (2013). Financing the Raj: The City of London and Colonial India, 1858-1940. Boydell Press Dewey, Clive (1978). Patwari and Chaukidar: Subordinate officials and the reliability of India’s agricultural statistics. Athlone Press Smith, Lisa (2015). The great Indian calorie debate: Explaining rising undernourishment during India’s rapid economic growth. Food Policy Duh, Josephine & Spears, Dean (2016). Health and Hunger: Disease, Energy Needs, and the Indian Calorie Consumption Puzzle. The Economic Journal Vankatesh, P. et al. (2016). Relationship between Food Production and Consumption Diversity in India – Empirical Evidences from Cross Section Analysis. Agricultural Economics Research Review Gupta, Shaibal (1980). Potential of Industrial Revolution in Pre-British India. Economic and Political Weekly Raychaudhuri, Tapan (1983). I - The mid-eighteenth-century background. Cambridge University Press Yasuba, Yasukichi (1986). Standard of Living in Japan Before Industrialization: From what Level did Japan Begin? A Comment. The Journal of Economic History Tomblinson, B.R. (1985). Writing History Sideways: Lessons for Indian Economic Historians from Meiji Japan. Cambridge University Press Rajan, M.S. (1969). The Impact of British Rule in India. Journal of Contemporary History Bryant, G.J. (2000). Indigenous Mercenaries in the Service of European Imperialists: The Case of the Sepoys in the Early British Indian Army, 1750-1800. War in History
The FCA (Financial Conduct Authority) finally got around to updating its list of unregulated online trading brokers. This list includes both forex and binary options unregulated brokers. Despite the fact, these brokers supposedly offer numerous services they are located in financial havens such as Seychelles, the Marshall Islands or Vanuatu and provide little to no information as to who they really are, and which parent company operates them. So, without further ado let’s introduce these fraudulent companies
Owned by LOK Marketing Ltd, this forex broker is supposedly located in Vanuatu, a tax haven for any illicit business. Apparently, SolidCFD appears to be forging a path for current forex brokers and others that would like to set up shop in the country, whose major exports are frozen fish and distinct floating edifices. However, upon further inspection, the SolidCFD has two other offices registered on their website. The first is under the name MGNC Marketing Ltd. and it is located in Cyprus. A quick google search tells us all that we need to know. MGNC Marketing LTD (Solid CFD) cold-calls potential investors and offers them unauthorized or prohibited financial services. An additional address is attributed to an area in West London. However, upon further review, there is no real company located there. Unsurprisingly no company is registered in the UK under SolidCFD, LOK marketing or MGNC Marketing, which implies that the broker has no physical presence in the United Kingdom. Furthermore, there is a whole list of negative reviews pertaining to SolidCFD. This includes clients being unable to withdraw their funds, aggressive salesmen and not being able to log back into an account once a withdrawal request is made.
Registered in the Marshal Islands, the company supposedly has an office in North London. However, the address that is provided is used by a company that enables other companies to register their business under their address. This obviously implies that StratX has no workers at its given address. Just by merely glancing at a few of the reviews tells you that StratX Markets is operated by a bunch of con-artists. In fact what is more alarming, a number of former clients are claiming that StratX personnel are operating a fraudulent fund recovery company called Linrow Clarion Solvency that claims they can recover money that was lost to illegitimate brokers like Stratx Markets.
Options Stars Global
Last but not least this “broker” is registered in Samoa, but apparently has some sort of a branch in Cyprus that is regulated by CySEC. That is patently false. Additionally, although the website has a U.K. phone number none of their of operations occur in the country. Not only Are there plenty of negative reviews about them, there is a dedicated Facebook page against them Users of the website report an inability to withdraw funds, threatening salesmen, and pushy brokers who tempt traders into depositing more cash into their accounts. The company has done so badly they even have a Facebook page against them.
If you have fallen victim to a cryptocurrency scam, send a complaint to at [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]), and we will do our very best to get into contact with you as soon as we can to initiate your funds recovery process.
Hi, I am a UK resident (England) and i have been trading forex for a while. As part of my longterm plans I now need to form a registered company to trade from. I will be seeking formal tax advise but thought it would be good to start here as i've seen a lot of good ideas and advise on this site for a while. I am now down to the following 2 options. Option 1: Open an IBC (with an offshore bank account) Form a UK Limited company, I will use this to trade on behalf of the IBC as a consultant. Withdraw funds to UK personal account (dividend etc.) Option 2: Form a Limited company in Ireland to trade from Withdraw funds to England personal account (dividend etc.) From the 2 options above I am Favouring Option 2, however I wanted to know what other peoples thoughts/experience were on this matter?
Moving to London from Canada (30y/o) and looking for the basics: bank account, phone plan, credit card, etc.
Greetings from /PersonalFinanceCanada ! I am looking to move to the UK in the coming months to live with my partner who is working in London. I am able to telework/remote work from the UK with my current Canadian job that pays in Canadian dollars. I have a work Visa for the UK, but am not looking just yet. The pay is good enough, even with the low dollar, high pound, to get by in London. I am hoping some of you can offer some words of wisdom to a financially prudent individual with little knowledge of the UK system. I am looking for a good cellphone plan (I already own a phone, just just a month-by-month or 1-year contract max), an easy bank to open that ideally offers a credit card that I can get with no UK-credit history (I have great Canadian credit history), and any other tips that may aid me in this move. So, for example, any promos from banks or credit cards that are work looking into? I also understand that there are more bills in the UK (property tax, water, heat, electricity, etc.) and many cannot be paid by credit card, but through a current/checking account. How does one best set up their finances for this? Since I'm paid in CAD$ not GBP, I will be transffering using TransferWise the basic amounts I need to get by in London for now, and perhaps using a no fee FOREX credit card for daily purchases. Thank you all! BONUS Q: anyone with knowledge of taxation across Canada-UK, please share. Given I'll be teleworking and paid in CAD$, the UK gov't wont even necessarily know I'm living there, but want to make sure I dont have to pay 2x the tax. :S
Photo: Internet What is the European Union? The European Union (EU) is a political and economic union of 27 member states located primarily in Europe.EU policies aim to ensure the free movement of people, goods, services, and capital within the internal market. Due to EU countries having close economic and trade relations, the EU's establishment can effectively prevent wars. The EU has helped foster long periods of economic prosperity, and it's helped keep the region at peace. In 2012, the EU was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. What is Brexit? Brexit(a portmanteau of "British" and "exit") is the withdrawal of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU). Following a UK-wide referendum in June 2016, in which 52% voted in favour of leaving the EU, and 48% voted to remain a member, the UK Government, which was then led by Theresa May, formally notified the EU of the country's intention to withdraw on 29 March 2017, beginning the Brexit process. Why Britain left the EU? The appealing part of the EU was that it made it easier for European countries to share in one another's prosperity. But, as with any union, cooperation means weathering downturns together — and that hasn't always been so easy. For example, the 2008 financial crisis. Many economists agree that the European Central Bank failed to respond effectively, leading to a recession that was much more severe than it needed to be. Unemployment rose, and tax revenue fell. Banks needed bailouts, and debt in a number of EU countries soared. According to data from the UK Ministry of Finance, the UK paid 18.8 billion pounds to the EU in 2014, equivalent to 361 million pounds a week. After the financial crisis, worries about immigration, rising right-wing forces, split within the party, etc. Former Conservative Prime Minister Cameron finally promised that if he wins the 2015 election, he will hold a Brexit referendum. David Cameron to quit after UK votes to leave the EU. When might Britain actually leave the EU? UK left the EU on 31 January 2020, but that is not the end of the Brexit story. That's because the UK is in an 11-month period, known as the transition, that keeps the UK bound to the EU's rules. The transition (sometimes called the implementation period) will end on 31 December 2020. Top of the to-do list will be a UK-EU free trade deal. This will be essential if the UK wants to be able to continue to trade with the EU with no tariffs, quotas or other barriers after the transition. Both sides will also need to decide how far the UK is allowed to move away from existing EU regulations. Aside from trade, many other aspects of the future UK-EU relationship will need to be decided. For example, Law enforcement, data sharing, and security; aviation standards and safety; access to fishing waters; supplies of electricity and gas; licensing and regulation of medicines. Photo: BBC What will happen to the UK after the Brexit? In terms of economy, the UK, which has withdrawn from the European Union, saves 8 billion pounds (this amount of money is equivalent to 0.5% of the UK's GDP) every year it pays to the EU's finances. After Brexit, immigration policies can also be further tightened to free up more jobs and labor benefits. Finally, Brexit can get rid of the red tape of the EU (about 70% of the laws in the UK are governed by EU laws), for example, no longer implementing the EU's common agricultural policy. However, after Brexit, tariffs will inevitably increase, and these tariffs will be transferred to commodities. To make better profits, many companies in the UK will rush to run away. For example, Dyson has moved its headquarters from the UK to Singapore. Many established British companies have left the UK because of Brexit. The news that Japanese car company Honda announced that it would close its British plant even shocked Britain. Besides, the City of London carries 74% of EU foreign exchange transactions, 40% of global Euro transactions, 85% of EU hedge fund assets, and half of EU deposit insurance. After Brexit, London's dominance in the foreign exchange market, including euro transactions, will decline. The current international order is the best since World War II, but Brexit shows how to make all countries truly unite and help each other, humankind still has a long way to go. After the Brexit, there will be more influential in the financial market in the future. TOP 1 Markets will keep an eye on it with you. https://preview.redd.it/ic5tdpzgh1n51.png?width=686&format=png&auto=webp&s=e4b46fa72fb484475b7743c2ced235f0d8a0493e https://preview.redd.it/j5bm785jh1n51.png?width=686&format=png&auto=webp&s=1c15796b88ef4a93354587c545d4c3cd67891040 For more information please download “TOP 1 Markets” at APP store or google play. https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.top1.trading.forex.commodity.cryptocurrency.indices top1markets： https://itunes.apple.com/my/app/id1461741702 top one： https://itunes.apple.com/tw/app/id1506200136
With this pc I will be using it for coding, graph works with forex and gaming. Games I would be playing is Modern Warfare, Rainbow six siege, Tomb raider, csgo and few more. My budget for this pc will be £1600-£1800 including monitor I will be needing a single monitor as the area I have for this pc wont be the biggest. preferably a 144hz monitor with 1ms refresh rate. I have seen a monitor in person down at my local curry's store in uk which costs about £200. This is link for the monitor-https://www.currys.co.uk/gbuk/computing/pc-monitors/pc-monitors/msi-optix-g241-full-hd-24-ips-lcd-gaming-monitor-black-10204313-pdt.html If there is any other recommendations I will take I plan to buy the parts any time past 15th July. I will just need the desktop itself as well as monitor which spoke about before North west United kingdom there is no microcenter near me as of location I am in but in Bolton where I live close to there is the scan computing place. Just some Razer gear but I am planning on upgrades in the future to better peripherals. I May possibly be overclocking my gpu, ram and cpu to get maximum performance out of them. For this I will do my research on how to do so. preferably a m.2 ssd for os and games I will use more often. but as well as that 2gb on a hdd would do me fine to store school work and little projects. preferably wireless internet but in future I may wire an ethernet cable threw the walls to my router. I do have an extension router in my room but is useless using ethernet cable with it. ps internet provider is Bt. mid tower preferably as space is not as big colour theme I would say black/white with possible bits of rgb which I can link all together for effects not so bothered with rgb strips as if I wanted to I can add in future. cases I have looked at have been h510,h710, corsair icu 220t as well as the 465x. I can used the watermarked version to begin with and can always buy a key in future. Extra info or particulars: This will be first time build and with cables for psu would prefer to be braided and fit colour scheme. Thank you to anyone who gets back to this will help out a lot.
With Bitcoin Suddenly Surging, Canaan Stock Is Also Going Up Today
Hi This is something more of a curiosity. In the UK we can trade Forex using spread betting so any gains are totally tax free. However, lets say for some reason you were using a different method. Maybe you were using a broker in another country, or trading Forex using a CFD account. What asset is Forex categorised under for Capital Gains Tax (CGT)? Looking at the government CGT website, it includes shares as being subject to CGT but not Forex, it does also state that selling coins is subject to it. However, Forex is neither shares nor coins; coins being physical objects. And just thinking of this as I type, it also states that CGT is paid on assets. It's arguable though that currency isn't an asset but merely a tool used to purchase assets. After all, there is the often used distinction of people being "cash rich" or "asset rich". Doesn't it blur the line between the distinction of money and assets if you have to pay a tax which is meant to be applied to an increase in value of an asset itself rather than means of exchange? I'm sure there's plenty of legal rulings on this, and this sub will be quite biased on the subject (shouldn't be taxed). Wondering on peoples thoughts on the later. Having a few showerthoughts this morning.
Share of world GDP from 2.43% in 2014 to 3.08% in 2018
Average GDP 7.3% against 6.7% in previous regime
Forex reserves from 300 bn USD in 2014 to 420 bn USD in 2018
Doubling of FDI inflow from 36 bn USD in 2014 to 66 billion USD in 2018
Inflation less than 2.3 % (Nov 18) against 10.1% in 2014
Growth of sensex from 24,121.74 in 2014 to 36,395.03 on 12 Feb 19 (50.88%)
Fiscal deficit under control
Per capita income increased by 45% from Rs 86,647 in 2014 to Rs 1,25,397
IT exemption from 2 lakh in 2014 to 5 lakh (effectively 9.85 lakh with home loan)
Restaurant bills tax reduced from 18% in 2014 to 5%
Transaction charges through card down from 1% to 0%, domestic money transfer fee down from Rs 5 in 2014 to zero
Financial inclusion (32 crore bank accounts with 260 billion worth deposits). Almost 100% coverage from earlier 50%
DBT (savings of 83000 crores @ 15000 crore annually), No of govt schemes DBT applied to increased from 34 in 2014 to 433, 2.7 lakh fake mid-day meal students, 3.3 crore fake LPG connections, 87 lakh fake MNREGA job cards, 3 crore fake ration cards eliminated
Zero IT for businesses with turnover upto 60 lakhs
GST exemplifying cooperative federalism, rates of 83 items down from pre-GST rates, out of 1211 items only 35 items in above 18% slab, 39% reduction of cost of basic household items. Average 1 lk crore monthly revenue through GST collection. Exempted for business upto 40 lk
Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, constitution of NCLT, 3 lakh crores of NPAs recovered, 66 cases resolved, 260 cases liquidated, resolution of stressed assets, 2100 companies pay back 83000 crore to banks settling their pending loan repayments
75 billion $ or Yen to Rupee exchange agreement with Japan
2.92 lakh km of optical fibre laid, 0.02% to 50% gram Panchayat connectivity
Swachh bharat mission has saved, according to WHO, 3 lakh lives and will save 1.5 lakh lives per year.
IT filers increase from 3.79 crore to 6.08 crore, enterprises registered for indirect tax up from 64 lk to 118 lakh
Entry of India in global regimes Missile Technology Control regime (MTCR), WA (Wassenaar Arrangement) and Australia Group
17 crore soil health cards
1.5 crore houses built, 91.37 crore in rural areas and 13.5 lakh in urban areas against 25 lakh houses built between 2010-2014. House for all target year is 2022.
1,78,346 houses built in NE over existing 2875 houses built till 2014
Home loan interest rate down from 10.3 % in 2014 to 8.4% in 2018, annual savings of Rs 47,160 for 30 lakhs over 30 years, no GST on affordable housing, 5% on remaining
Trading agreement in rupee with Iran and UAE
Common service centres up from 84k to 3 Lakh
OROP implemented after 43 years, 35000 crores disbursed to 8 crore veterans
India's vaccination programme Indradhanush amongst 12 best practices of world
5035 Jan Aushadhi and - 1054 medicines under price control (60-90% discounts).
More than 150 Amrit stores, reduction of cost of cromium cobalt Knee implant from 1.58-2.5 lakh to 54,720 and high flex implant from Rs181728 to 56490 (69%), 85% reduction in cardiac stent price to Rs 28000
87% reduction in 400 cancer drugs
Rate of Interest on higher education loans dropped from 14.75 in 2013 to 10.88% in 2019, savings of 1.18 lakh on 10 lakh loan over tenure of 60 months, Rs 2000 savings on EMI
Data revolution: Cost of 1 GB $0.26 in India against $12.37 in US, $6.66 in UK and $75.2 in Zimbabwe. Unlimited mobile+ 45 Gb data = Rs 150 against Rs 1000 in 2013; annual savings of 10,200
Katra rail line work completed after 16 years
Dhola Sadiya bridge work completed after 16 years
Sardar Sarovar Dam work completed after 15 years
Pakyong airport completed after 10 years
Chennai Nashri Tunnel after 10 years
Assam NRC after 40 years
National War Memorial after 50 years
NE cpas after 60 years
Kollam bypass after 43 years
Indo-Bangladesh enclaves after 42 years
Bansagar canal project after 40 years
Bogibeel bridge after 23 years
Western peri expressway after 15 years
Kota Chambal bridge after 11 years
Maibang-Lumding Stretch completed
Delhi Meerut Expressway completed
Ganga Expressway project (world's longest) underway
Metros in Ahmedabad, Nagpur, Jaipur, Lucknow, Washermenpet
All umanned level crossings eliminated
Ayushman Bharat: annual 5 lakh health care to every family, 15.05 lakh hospital admissions for secondary/ tertiary treatment, 2.4 crore e-cards generated as on 10 Mar 19 in 170 days. Target 50 crore people.
59minutes loan portal: 92,000 loan applications of MSME amounting to 30,000 crores approved, 6000 crores sanctioned till Nov 18
87% of farming house (owning land of 2 hctrs) or 12 cr ppl to get kisaan sammaan nidhi of Rs 6000 pr year. Rs 5215 cr transferred directly to 2.6 crore farmers in 37 days (for households with holding less than 0.01 hectares incm per month so far was Rs 8136 agnst exp of 6594
1.5 million electric rickshaws
Procurement of 36 Rafale on Government to Government Basis avoiding middlemen
05 billion$ S 400 Triumf air defence missile system deal with Russia
Udaan scheme - flight cost down from Rs 5000/1000 km in 2013 to 3400/1000 km in 2018, 34 airports operationalised, small towns connected, all states on aerial
Preventive conservation of 39275570 folios, curative conservation of 3656863 filios, digitisation of 2.83 lakh manuscripts consisting of 2.93 crore pages
India is now world's largest 2-wheeler manufacturer, 2nd largest smartphone manufacturer (94% of mobiles sold now made in India), 4th largest automaker, 2nd largest steel producer
5100 m Mandvi Bridge in Goa in 3.5 years
Ease of doing Business ranking jump from 134 in 2014 to 77 in 2019
Therubali - Singapur Bridge No 588
Restoration of Asurgarh Fort, Kalahandi
GeM portal with 731431 product categories, 180,862 registered sellers and 32114 govt buyers
10% EWS reservation
40% of ongoing 700 NH projects completed, adding 40,039 km between 2014-18 against 91,287 km between 1947-2014
Highway construction rate jumped from 12 km/day in 2014 to 27 km/day in 2019
101 terrorists and 11 offenders extradited
90,000 ex-partite Indians evacuated
Chabahar port, Sittwe port and Duqm port
Military installation in Seychelles
International logistics agreements with US, France and Singapore
Work underway on 25 MLD ZLD Common Effluent Treatment Plant at Gujarat Eco Textile Park and will save 25 million litres of water per day
Beautification of 65 railway stations, all stations fitted with LED lights, wi-fi, multi-brand food centres, kiosks, executive lounges, lifts (445 from 97 in 2014), escalators (603 from 199 in 2014), travellators and ramps
100% electrification of railways underway, first solar powered railway station (Guwahati). First solar powered train (world's second), savings of Rs 40 Lakhs and 90,000 ltrs diesel per year
Make in India semi-high-speed trains - Tejas, Gatiman and Vande Bharat
Humsafar and Antodaya trains, Deen Dayalu and Anubhuti coaches, UDAY double decker, glass dome Vistadome coaches
Project Swarn and Project Utkrisht to upgrade Rajdhani/Shatabdi and Mail/Express respectively
Largest coach production in world at ICF, Chennai
No more human extreta on railway tracks. Installation of 1.37 lakh out of 2.5 lakh completed in Jun 18.
400 wi-fi railway stations (Aug 18)
80% reduction in rail accidents
10 high speed rail corridors underway, target date 2025-26
Export of world class customised coaches from MCF, Rae Bareli
LIC and Air India register profit
2300 km rail tracks constructed, speed jumped from 4.1 km/day in 2014 to 6.53 km/day in 2018
Neem coating of urea
Gokul mission - record 160 million ton milk production
Online availability of CBSE and NCERT books
10 crore LED bulbs distributed, 5000 crore savings
Investment in urban infrastructure jumped from 157703 crores to 795500 crores
Statue of Unity to commemorate Iron Man of India
Rs 2509 crore sales in Khadi
482.36 million digital transactions worth Rs 74,978 crores in Oct 2018 against 0.3 million transactions worth Rs 90 crores in Nov 2016
30% increase in ATMs, 208% increase of PoS machines from 10.81 lakh in May 14 to 33.32 lakh in Aug 18, 111% increase in credit cards from 1.94 crore in May 14 to 4.10 crore in Aug 18, 144% increase in debit cards from 40.17 crore to 98.02 crore
Ease of Doing Business Index 142 (2014) to 100 (2018)
Ease of getting electricity index 99 (2014) to 26 (2018)
UN's e-govt index 118 (2014) to 97(2018)
Globalisation index 112 to 107 (2018)
Innovation index 76 to 60 (2018)
Competitiveness index 71 to 39
Logistics performance index 54 to 35
Global peace index 141 to 137
DBR ranking 100 to 77
India ranks 3rd in global start up ecosystem
06 crore jobs in MSME sector based on CII data
448 million formal jobs based on EPFO, NPS and PPF data
10 crore jobs in entrepreneurship via mudra and other schemes
80% increase in tax payers, 51.3 % increase in gross tax revenue
Black Money report card - Voluntary income declaration scheme (Rs 65250 crore), IT search and survey operations (35,460 crore), Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Yojana(5000 crore), Benami transactions Act (4300 crore), Black Money and Imposition of Tax Act (4100 crore)
160 Rs 6000 financial assiatence for pregnant women 161/1 . Sagarmala: port capacity increase from 8 to 14.7 lakh ton, cargo up from 89 to 116 MMT 8 new national waterways including ganga waterway NW-1 and Brahmaputra waterway NW-2. 161/2. domestic cruise service between Mumbai and Goa, ro-ro services on Ghoga-Dahej reducing travel distance from 294 to 31 km 161/3. New international cruise terminals at Chennai and Goa, railway line between Haridaspur and Paradip underway, LNG import terminal at Kamarajar port, Oil berth ai Jawahar Dweep,Coal berth at Mangalore port 161/4 . deep draft Iron ore berth at Paradip berth, JNPT SEZ, Kandla and Paradip smart industrial port city, largest dry dock and international ship repair facility at CSL, modernisation of 17 fishing harbours
800 km Delhi-Mumbai Expressway underway
Replacement of bio-toilets with upgraded vacuum bio toilets in trains underway. Order for 500 placed on experimental basis.
No terror strikes in hinterland
103 new KVs
62 new Navodaya Vidyalayas
6 new IITs against 16 in previous 57 years
6 new IIMs against 13 in previous 57 years
7 IIITs against 7 in previous 57 years
02 new IISER
12 new AIIMS against 7 in previous 57 years.
141 new universities against 30 in previous 57 years
01 new NIT
Life Insurances @ Rs 12 annual and @ Rs 12 monthly premiums
Atal Pension Yojana
Pension to 42 crore people of unorganised sector
BHIM application for digital payments
Khelo India Initiative for tracking of athletes' development, Rs 5 lk per annum scholarship for 1000 budding athletes per year for eight years each; monthly Rs 50000 out-of -pocket exptr, 2000 PETs, salary cap of coaches doubled from Rs 1-2 lk per month, target 15 yrs
Special Task Force for Olympics
Bullet train maiden project
182/1. Rs 6.92 lakh crore Bharatmala project, 44 economic corridors with 9000 km road, 2000 km port connectivity, 9000km roads to connect district HQs with NH, 182/2. 2000 km road with Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh and Myanmar, opening up of 185 choke points, road development to char dham, 12 greenfield expressways spanning 1900 km
36 murtis retrieved and brought back to India in 2014-2019 under India Pride Project against 02 between 2000-2013, 02 in 90s, 03 in 80s, 01 in 70s and nil in 50s and 60s
Unemployment rate 3.8% against 13.8 % in 2013
India is a less-cash society now
Develpment of Trincomalee and Columbo port while checkmating China's Hambantota by taking operations of near by (15 km away) Mattala Rajapaksha International Airport
Plugging the 'double taxation avoidance' black money loophole through a new tax agreement with Mauritius
Deal with Switzerland for automatic tax data sharing from 01 Jan 2019
189/1 Varanasi - Varanasi ring road phase 1 completed, phase 2 underway, inland waterways terminal, Babatpur airport highway, 140 MLD Dinaput STP, facelift to railway station, big cow shelter for stray cattle, BPO centre, piped gas project, Varanasi-Balia rail project, 189/2. Vande Bharat Express, Kashi Vishwanath temple - Ganga Ghat corridor project, renovation of all bathings ghats, LED illuminations of ghats and major roads, underground electricity cabling, 189/3. new sewage plants, 02 cancer treatment facilities, 65th to 29th rank in swachhata sarvekshan (2016), 90% ODF district.
Creation of 100 Smart cities, 100 crore per year per city for 05 years, 500 acres for retrofitting, 50 acres for redevelopment, 250 acres for green field projects, 10% of energy from renewable resources, 80% of green building construction, special purpose vehicles.
191/1 Development of 500 AMRUT cities underway, urbanization project of rejuvenation and transformation which includes beach front development, prevention of beach erosion, improvement of water supply, replacement of pipelines, 191/2. New sewerage connections, greenery and open spaces, digital and smart facilities, e-governance, LED streetlights, public transport, storm water drainage projects in a phased manner, Target date 2022
Increase in Child Sex Ratio (CSR) in 104 BBBP (Beti Bachao Beti Padhao) districts, anti-natal care registration in 119 districts and institutional deliveries in 146 out of total 640 districts as in Mar 18. CSR of Haryana increased from 871 to 914.
International Yoga Day
Aspirational Districts Programme: 115 'backward' districts placed under 'prabharis' and for competitive development on the basis of 49 performance indicators, target year 2022.
195/1. Make in India: 16.4 lakh crore investment committments, 1.5 lakh crore investment inquiries, 60 bn USD FDI, 26 sectors covered, 23 positions jump in World Bank's Doing Business Report (DBR), 32 places in WEF's Global Competitiveness Index (GCI), 195/2 19 places in Logistics Performance Index, 42 places in Ease of Doing Business index, schemes include Bharatmala, Sagarmala, dedicate freight corridors, industrial corridors, UDAN-RCS, Bharat Broadband Network, Digital India.
251 Passport Seva Kendras (PSKs) and Post Office Passport Seva kendras (POPSKs) against 77 till 2014, target of one PSK every 50 km across India.
Unanimous election of Justice Dalveer Bhandari to ICJ forcing UK to pull out own nominee Christopher Greenwood, demonstrating India's clout in international arena.
India Post Payments Bank: India's biggest banking outreach with 1.55 lakh post offices (2.5 times banking network) linked to IPPB system
Philip Kotler award, Seoul Peace prize, Champion of the Earth Award, Grand Collar of the State of Palestine, Amir Abdulla Khan Award, King Abdulaziz Sash award, Amir Amanullah Khan award.
1900 gifts and memorabilia received by Modi auctioned and 11.7 crores added to Namami Gange fund, 1.4 c of Seoul Peace award also to Nammami Gange.
Removal of article 370 and thereby also 35a after several decades.
Giving citizenship to persecuted minorities in Pakistan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan through passing of CAA.
Trust for creation of Ram Mandir underway.
Abolishment of Haj subsidy.
Abolishment and criminalization of instant triple talak.
Deal with Bodo community.
Getting Maulana Masood Azhar listed as an UN designated terrorist.
https://preview.redd.it/gp18bjnlabr41.jpg?width=768&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6054e7f52e8d52da403016139ae43e0e799abf15 Download PDF of this article here:https://docdro.id/6eLgUPo In light of the recent fall in oil prices due to the Saudi-Russian dispute and dampening demand for oil due to the lockdowns implemented globally, O&G stocks have taken a severe beating, falling approximately 50% from their highs at the beginning of the year. Not spared from this onslaught is Hibiscus Petroleum Berhad (Hibiscus), a listed oil and gas (O&G) exploration and production (E&P) company. Why invest in O&G stocks in this particularly uncertain period? For one, valuations of these stocks have fallen to multi-year lows, bringing the potential ROI on these stocks to attractive levels. Oil prices are cyclical, and are bound to return to the mean given a sufficiently long time horizon. The trick is to find those companies who can survive through this downturn and emerge into “normal” profitability once oil prices rebound. In this article, I will explore the upsides and downsides of investing in Hibiscus. I will do my best to cater this report to newcomers to the O&G industry – rather than address exclusively experts and veterans of the O&G sector. As an equity analyst, I aim to provide a view on the company primarily, and will generally refrain from providing macro views on oil or opinions about secular trends of the sector. I hope you enjoy reading it! Stock code: 5199.KL Stock name: Hibiscus Petroleum Berhad Financial information and financial reports: https://www.malaysiastock.biz/Corporate-Infomation.aspx?securityCode=5199 Company website: https://www.hibiscuspetroleum.com/
Hibiscus Petroleum Berhad (5199.KL) is an oil and gas (O&G) upstream exploration and production (E&P) company located in Malaysia. As an E&P company, their business can be basically described as: · looking for oil, · drawing it out of the ground, and · selling it on global oil markets. This means Hibiscus’s profits are particularly exposed to fluctuating oil prices. With oil prices falling to sub-$30 from about $60 at the beginning of the year, Hibiscus’s stock price has also fallen by about 50% YTD – from around RM 1.00 to RM 0.45 (as of 5 April 2020). https://preview.redd.it/3dqc4jraabr41.png?width=641&format=png&auto=webp&s=7ba0e8614c4e9d781edfc670016a874b90560684 https://preview.redd.it/lvdkrf0cabr41.png?width=356&format=png&auto=webp&s=46f250a713887b06986932fa475dc59c7c28582e While the company is domiciled in Malaysia, its two main oil producing fields are located in both Malaysia and the UK. The Malaysian oil field is commonly referred to as the North Sabah field, while the UK oil field is commonly referred to as the Anasuria oil field. Hibiscus has licenses to other oil fields in different parts of the world, notably the Marigold/Sunflower oil fields in the UK and the VIC cluster in Australia, but its revenues and profits mainly stem from the former two oil producing fields. Given that it’s a small player and has only two primary producing oil fields, it’s not surprising that Hibiscus sells its oil to a concentrated pool of customers, with 2 of them representing 80% of its revenues (i.e. Petronas and BP). Fortunately, both these customers are oil supermajors, and are unlikely to default on their obligations despite low oil prices. At RM 0.45 per share, the market capitalization is RM 714.7m and it has a trailing PE ratio of about 5x. It doesn’t carry any debt, and it hasn’t paid a dividend in its listing history. The MD, Mr. Kenneth Gerard Pereira, owns about 10% of the company’s outstanding shares.
Reserves (Total recoverable oil) & Production (bbl/day)
To begin analyzing the company, it’s necessary to understand a little of the industry jargon. We’ll start with Reserves and Production. In general, there are three types of categories for a company’s recoverable oil volumes – Reserves, Contingent Resources and Prospective Resources. Reserves are those oil fields which are “commercial”, which is defined as below: As defined by the SPE PRMS,Reservesare “… quantities of petroleum anticipated to be commercially recoverable by application of development projects to known accumulations from a given date forward under defined conditions.” Therefore, Reserves must be discovered (by drilling, recoverable (with current technology), remaining in the subsurface (at the effective date of the evaluation) and “commercial” based on the development project proposed.) Note that Reserves are associated with development projects. To be considered as “commercial”, there must be a firm intention to proceed with the project in a reasonable time frame (typically 5 years, and such intention must be based upon all of the following criteria:) - A reasonable assessment of the future economics of the development project meeting defined investment and operating criteria;- A reasonable expectation that there will be a market for all or at least the expected sales quantities of production required to justify development;- Evidence that the necessary production and transportation facilities are available or can be made available; and- Evidence that legal, contractual, environmental and other social and economic concerns will allow for the actual implementation of the recovery project being evaluated. Contingent Resources and Prospective Resources are further defined as below: -Contingent Resources: potentially recoverable volumes associated with a development plan that targets discovered volumes but is not (yet commercial (as defined above); and)-Prospective Resources: potentially recoverable volumes associated with a development plan that targets as yet undiscovered volumes. In the industry lingo, we generally refer to Reserves as ‘P’ and Contingent Resources as ‘C’. These ‘P’ and ‘C’ resources can be further categorized into 1P/2P/3P resources and 1C/2C/3C resources, each referring to a low/medium/high estimate of the company’s potential recoverable oil volumes: - Low/1C/1P estimate: there should be reasonable certainty that volumes actually recovered will equal or exceed the estimate;- Best/2C/2P estimate: there should be an equal likelihood of the actual volumes of petroleum being larger or smaller than the estimate; and- High/3C/3P estimate: there is a low probability that the estimate will be exceeded. Hence in the E&P industry, it is easy to see why most investors and analysts refer to the 2P estimate as the best estimate for a company’s actual recoverable oil volumes. This is because 2P reserves (‘2P’ referring to ‘Proved and Probable’) are a middle estimate of the recoverable oil volumes legally recognized as “commercial”. However, there’s nothing stopping you from including 2C resources (riskier) or utilizing 1P resources (conservative) as your estimate for total recoverable oil volumes, depending on your risk appetite. In this instance, the company has provided a snapshot of its 2P and 2C resources in its analyst presentation: https://preview.redd.it/o8qejdyc8br41.png?width=710&format=png&auto=webp&s=b3ab9be8f83badf0206adc982feda3a558d43e78 Basically, what the company is saying here is that by 2021, it will have classified as 2P reserves at least 23.7 million bbl from its Anasuria field and 20.5 million bbl from its North Sabah field – for total 2P reserves of 44.2 million bbl (we are ignoring the Australian VIC cluster as it is only estimated to reach first oil by 2022). Furthermore, the company is stating that they have discovered (but not yet legally classified as “commercial”) a further 71 million bbl of oil from both the Anasuria and North Sabah fields, as well as the Marigold/Sunflower fields. If we include these 2C resources, the total potential recoverable oil volumes could exceed 100 million bbl. In this report, we shall explore all valuation scenarios giving consideration to both 2P and 2C resources. https://preview.redd.it/gk54qplf8br41.png?width=489&format=png&auto=webp&s=c905b7a6328432218b5b9dfd53cc9ef1390bd604 The company further targets a 2021 production rate of 20,000 bbl (LTM: 8,000 bbl), which includes 5,000 bbl from its Anasuria field (LTM: 2,500 bbl) and 7,000 bbl from its North Sabah field (LTM: 5,300 bbl). This is a substantial increase in forecasted production from both existing and prospective oil fields. If it materializes, annual production rate could be as high as 7,300 mmbbl, and 2021 revenues (given FY20 USD/bbl of $60) could exceed RM 1.5 billion (FY20: RM 988 million). However, this targeted forecast is quite a stretch from current production levels. Nevertheless, we shall consider all provided information in estimating a valuation for Hibiscus. To understand Hibiscus’s oil production capacity and forecast its revenues and profits, we need to have a better appreciation of the performance of its two main cash-generating assets – the North Sabah field and the Anasuria field. North Sabah oil field https://preview.redd.it/62nssexj8br41.png?width=1003&format=png&auto=webp&s=cd78f86d51165fb9a93015e49496f7f98dad64dd Hibiscus owns a 50% interest in the North Sabah field together with its partner Petronas, and has production rights over the field up to year 2040. The asset contains 4 oil fields, namely the St Joseph field, South Furious field, SF 30 field and Barton field. For the sake of brevity, we shall not delve deep into the operational aspects of the fields or the contractual nature of its production sharing contract (PSC). We’ll just focus on the factors which relate to its financial performance. These are: · Average uptime · Total oil sold · Average realized oil price · Average OPEX per bbl With regards to average uptime, we can see that the company maintains relative high facility availability, exceeding 90% uptime in all quarters of the LTM with exception of Jul-Sep 2019. The dip in average uptime was due to production enhancement projects and maintenance activities undertaken to improve the production capacity of the St Joseph and SF30 oil fields. Hence, we can conclude that management has a good handle on operational performance. It also implies that there is little room for further improvement in production resulting from increased uptime. As North Sabah is under a production sharing contract (PSC), there is a distinction between gross oil production and net oil production. The former relates to total oil drawn out of the ground, whereas the latter refers to Hibiscus’s share of oil production after taxes, royalties and expenses are accounted for. In this case, we want to pay attention to net oil production, not gross. We can arrive at Hibiscus’s total oil sold for the last twelve months (LTM) by adding up the total oil sold for each of the last 4 quarters. Summing up the figures yields total oil sold for the LTM of approximately 2,075,305 bbl. Then, we can arrive at an average realized oil price over the LTM by averaging the average realized oil price for the last 4 quarters, giving us an average realized oil price over the LTM of USD 68.57/bbl. We can do the same for average OPEX per bbl, giving us an average OPEX per bbl over the LTM of USD 13.23/bbl. Thus, we can sum up the above financial performance of the North Sabah field with the following figures: · Total oil sold: 2,075,305 bbl · Average realized oil price: USD 68.57/bbl · Average OPEX per bbl: USD 13.23/bbl Anasuria oil field https://preview.redd.it/586u4kfo8br41.png?width=1038&format=png&auto=webp&s=7580fc7f7df7e948754d025745a5cf47d4393c0f Doing the same exercise as above for the Anasuria field, we arrive at the following financial performance for the Anasuria field: · Total oil sold: 1,073,304 bbl · Average realized oil price: USD 63.57/bbl · Average OPEX per bbl: USD 23.22/bbl As gas production is relatively immaterial, and to be conservative, we shall only consider the crude oil production from the Anasuria field in forecasting revenues.
Valuation (Method 1)
Putting the figures from both oil fields together, we get the following data: https://preview.redd.it/7y6064dq8br41.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=2a4120563a011cf61fc6090e1cd5932602599dc2 Given that we have determined LTM EBITDA of RM 632m, the next step would be to subtract ITDA (interest, tax, depreciation & amortization) from it to obtain estimated LTM Net Profit. Using FY2020’s ITDA of approximately RM 318m as a guideline, we arrive at an estimated LTM Net Profit of RM 314m (FY20: 230m). Given the current market capitalization of RM 714.7m, this implies a trailing LTM PE of 2.3x. Performing a sensitivity analysis given different oil prices, we arrive at the following net profit table for the company under different oil price scenarios, assuming oil production rate and ITDA remain constant: https://preview.redd.it/xixge5sr8br41.png?width=433&format=png&auto=webp&s=288a00f6e5088d01936f0217ae7798d2cfcf11f2 From the above exercise, it becomes apparent that Hibiscus has a breakeven oil price of about USD 41.8863/bbl, and has a lot of operating leverage given the exponential rate of increase in its Net Profit with each consequent increase in oil prices. Considering that the oil production rate (EBITDA) is likely to increase faster than ITDA’s proportion to revenues (fixed costs), at an implied PE of 4.33x, it seems likely that an investment in Hibiscus will be profitable over the next 10 years (with the assumption that oil prices will revert to the mean in the long-term).
Valuation (Method 2)
Of course, there are a lot of assumptions behind the above method of valuation. Hence, it would be prudent to perform multiple methods of valuation and compare the figures to one another. As opposed to the profit/loss assessment in Valuation (Method 1), another way of performing a valuation would be to estimate its balance sheet value, i.e. total revenues from 2P Reserves, and assign a reasonable margin to it. https://preview.redd.it/o2eiss6u8br41.png?width=710&format=png&auto=webp&s=03960cce698d9cedb076f3d5f571b3c59d908fa8 From the above, we understand that Hibiscus’s 2P reserves from the North Sabah and Anasuria fields alone are approximately 44.2 mmbbl (we ignore contribution from Australia’s VIC cluster as it hasn’t been developed yet). Doing a similar sensitivity analysis of different oil prices as above, we arrive at the following estimated total revenues and accumulated net profit: https://preview.redd.it/h8hubrmw8br41.png?width=450&format=png&auto=webp&s=6d23f0f9c3dafda89e758b815072ba335467f33e Let’s assume that the above average of RM 9.68 billion in total realizable revenues from current 2P reserves holds true. If we assign a conservative Net Profit margin of 15% (FY20: 23%; past 5 years average: 16%), we arrive at estimated accumulated Net Profit from 2P Reserves ofRM 1.452 billion. Given the current market capitalization of RM 714 million, we might be able to say that the equity is worth about twice the current share price. However, it is understandable that some readers might feel that the figures used in the above estimate (e.g. net profit margin of 15%) were randomly plucked from the sky. So how do we reconcile them with figures from the financial statements? Fortunately, there appears to be a way to do just that. Intangible Assets I refer you to a figure in the financial statements which provides a shortcut to the valuation of 2P Reserves. This is the carrying value of Intangible Assets on the Balance Sheet. As of 2QFY21, that amount was RM 1,468,860,000 (i.e. RM 1.468 billion). https://preview.redd.it/hse8ttb09br41.png?width=881&format=png&auto=webp&s=82e48b5961c905fe9273cb6346368de60202ebec Quite coincidentally, one might observe that this figure is dangerously close to the estimated accumulated Net Profit from 2P Reserves of RM 1.452 billion we calculated earlier. But why would this amount matter at all? To answer that, I refer you to the notes of the Annual Report FY20 (AR20). On page 148 of the AR20, we find the following two paragraphs: E&E assets comprise of rights and concession and conventional studies. Following the acquisition of a concession right to explore a licensed area, the costs incurred such as geological and geophysical surveys, drilling, commercial appraisal costs and other directly attributable costs of exploration and appraisal including technical and administrative costs, are capitalised as conventional studies, presented as intangible assets. E&E assets are assessed for impairment when facts and circumstances suggest that the carrying amount of an E&E asset may exceed its recoverable amount. The Group will allocate E&E assets to cash generating unit (“CGU”s or groups of CGUs for the purpose of assessing such assets for impairment. Each CGU or group of units to which an E&E asset is allocated will not be larger than an operating segment as disclosed in Note 39 to the financial statements.) Hence, we can determine that firstly, the intangible asset value represents capitalized costs of acquisition of the oil fields, including technical exploration costs and costs of acquiring the relevant licenses. Secondly, an impairment review will be carried out when “the carrying amount of an E&E asset may exceed its recoverable amount”, with E&E assets being allocated to “cash generating units” (CGU) for the purposes of assessment. On page 169 of the AR20, we find the following: Carrying amounts of the Group’s intangible assets, oil and gas assets and FPSO are reviewed for possible impairment annually including any indicators of impairment. For the purpose of assessing impairment, assets are grouped at the lowest level CGUs for which there is a separately identifiable cash flow available. These CGUs are based on operating areas, represented by the 2011 North Sabah EOR PSC (“North Sabah”, the Anasuria Cluster, the Marigold and Sunflower fields, the VIC/P57 exploration permit (“VIC/P57”) and the VIC/L31 production license (“VIC/L31”).) So apparently, the CGUs that have been assigned refer to the respective oil producing fields, two of which include the North Sabah field and the Anasuria field. In order to perform the impairment review, estimates of future cash flow will be made by management to assess the “recoverable amount” (as described above), subject to assumptions and an appropriate discount rate. Hence, what we can gather up to now is that management will estimate future recoverable cash flows from a CGU (i.e. the North Sabah and Anasuria oil fields), compare that to their carrying value, and perform an impairment if their future recoverable cash flows are less than their carrying value. In other words, if estimated accumulated profits from the North Sabah and Anasuria oil fields are less than their carrying value, an impairment is required. So where do we find the carrying values for the North Sabah and Anasuria oil fields? Further down on page 184 in the AR20, we see the following: Included in rights and concession are the carrying amounts of producing field licenses in the Anasuria Cluster amounting to RM668,211,518 (2018: RM687,664,530, producing field licenses in North Sabah amounting to RM471,031,008 (2018: RM414,333,116)) Hence, we can determine that the carrying values for the North Sabah and Anasuria oil fields are RM 471m and RM 668m respectively. But where do we find the future recoverable cash flows of the fields as estimated by management, and what are the assumptions used in that calculation? Fortunately, we find just that on page 185: 17 INTANGIBLE ASSETS (CONTINUED) (a Anasuria Cluster) The Directors have concluded that there is no impairment indicator for Anasuria Cluster during the current financial year. In the previous financial year, due to uncertainties in crude oil prices, the Group has assessed the recoverable amount of the intangible assets, oil and gas assets and FPSO relating to the Anasuria Cluster. The recoverable amount is determined using the FVLCTS model based on discounted cash flows (“DCF” derived from the expected cash in/outflow pattern over the production lives.) The key assumptions used to determine the recoverable amount for the Anasuria Cluster were as follows: (i Discount rate of 10%;) (ii Future cost inflation factor of 2% per annum;) (iii Oil price forecast based on the oil price forward curve from independent parties; and,) (iv Oil production profile based on the assessment by independent oil and gas reserve experts.) Based on the assessments performed, the Directors concluded that the recoverable amount calculated based on the valuation model is higher than the carrying amount. (b North Sabah) The acquisition of the North Sabah assets was completed in the previous financial year. Details of the acquisition are as disclosed in Note 15 to the financial statements. The Directors have concluded that there is no impairment indicator for North Sabah during the current financial year. Here, we can see that the recoverable amount of the Anasuria field was estimated based on a DCF of expected future cash flows over the production life of the asset. The key assumptions used by management all seem appropriate, including a discount rate of 10% and oil price and oil production estimates based on independent assessment. From there, management concludes that the recoverable amount of the Anasuria field is higher than its carrying amount (i.e. no impairment required). Likewise, for the North Sabah field. How do we interpret this? Basically, what management is saying is that given a 10% discount rate and independent oil price and oil production estimates, the accumulated profits (i.e. recoverable amount) from both the North Sabah and the Anasuria fields exceed their carrying amounts of RM 471m and RM 668m respectively. In other words, according to management’s own estimates, the carrying value of the Intangible Assets of RM 1.468 billionapproximates the accumulated Net Profit recoverable from 2P reserves. To conclude Valuation (Method 2), we arrive at the following:
Accumulated Net Profit from 2P Reserves
RM 1.452 billion
RM 1.468 billion
By now, we have established the basic economics of Hibiscus’s business, including its revenues (i.e. oil production and oil price scenarios), costs (OPEX, ITDA), profitability (breakeven, future earnings potential) and balance sheet value (2P reserves, valuation). Moving on, we want to gain a deeper understanding of the 3 statements to anticipate any blind spots and risks. We’ll refer to the financial statements of both the FY20 annual report and the 2Q21 quarterly report in this analysis. For the sake of brevity, I’ll only point out those line items which need extra attention, and skip over the rest. Feel free to go through the financial statements on your own to gain a better familiarity of the business. https://preview.redd.it/h689bss79br41.png?width=810&format=png&auto=webp&s=ed47fce6a5c3815dd3d4f819e31f1ce39ccf4a0b Income Statement First, we’ll start with the Income Statement on page 135 of the AR20. Revenues are straightforward, as we’ve discussed above. Cost of Sales and Administrative Expenses fall under the jurisdiction of OPEX, which we’ve also seen earlier. Other Expenses are mostly made up of Depreciation & Amortization of RM 115m. Finance Costs are where things start to get tricky. Why does a company which carries no debt have such huge amounts of finance costs? The reason can be found in Note 8, where it is revealed that the bulk of finance costs relate to the unwinding of discount of provision for decommissioning costs of RM 25m (Note 32). https://preview.redd.it/4omjptbe9br41.png?width=1019&format=png&auto=webp&s=eaabfc824134063100afa62edfd36a34a680fb60 This actually refers to the expected future costs of restoring the Anasuria and North Sabah fields to their original condition once the oil reserves have been depleted. Accounting standards require the company to provide for these decommissioning costs as they are estimable and probable. The way the decommissioning costs are accounted for is the same as an amortized loan, where the initial carrying value is recognized as a liability and the discount rate applied is reversed each year as an expense on the Income Statement. However, these expenses are largely non-cash in nature and do not necessitate a cash outflow every year (FY20: RM 69m). Unwinding of discount on non-current other payables of RM 12m relate to contractual payments to the North Sabah sellers. We will discuss it later. Taxation is another tricky subject, and is even more significant than Finance Costs at RM 161m. In gist, Hibiscus is subject to the 38% PITA (Petroleum Income Tax Act) under Malaysian jurisdiction, and the 30% Petroleum tax + 10% Supplementary tax under UK jurisdiction. Of the RM 161m, RM 41m of it relates to deferred tax which originates from the difference between tax treatment and accounting treatment on capitalized assets (accelerated depreciation vs straight-line depreciation). Nonetheless, what you should take away from this is that the tax expense is a tangible expense and material to breakeven analysis. Fortunately, tax is a variable expense, and should not materially impact the cash flow of Hibiscus in today’s low oil price environment. Note: Cash outflows for Tax Paid in FY20 was RM 97m, substantially below the RM 161m tax expense. https://preview.redd.it/1xrnwzm89br41.png?width=732&format=png&auto=webp&s=c078bc3e18d9c79d9a6fbe1187803612753f69d8 Balance Sheet The balance sheet of Hibiscus is unexciting; I’ll just bring your attention to those line items which need additional scrutiny. I’ll use the figures in the latest 2Q21 quarterly report (2Q21) and refer to the notes in AR20 for clarity. We’ve already discussed Intangible Assets in the section above, so I won’t dwell on it again. Moving on, the company has Equipment of RM 582m, largely relating to O&G assets (e.g. the Anasuria FPSO vessel and CAPEX incurred on production enhancement projects). Restricted cash and bank balances represent contractual obligations for decommissioning costs of the Anasuria Cluster, and are inaccessible for use in operations. Inventories are relatively low, despite Hibiscus being an E&P company, so forex fluctuations on carrying value of inventories are relatively immaterial. Trade receivables largely relate to entitlements from Petronas and BP (both oil supermajors), and are hence quite safe from impairment. Other receivables, deposits and prepayments are significant as they relate to security deposits placed with sellers of the oil fields acquired; these should be ignored for cash flow purposes. Note: Total cash and bank balances do not include approximately RM 105 m proceeds from the North Sabah December 2019 offtake (which was received in January 2020) Cash and bank balances of RM 90m do not include RM 105m of proceeds from offtake received in 3Q21 (Jan 2020). Hence, the actual cash and bank balances as of 2Q21 approximate RM 200m. Liabilities are a little more interesting. First, I’ll draw your attention to the significant Deferred tax liabilities of RM 457m. These largely relate to the amortization of CAPEX (i.e. Equipment and capitalized E&E expenses), which is given an accelerated depreciation treatment for tax purposes. The way this works is that the government gives Hibiscus a favorable tax treatment on capital expenditures incurred via an accelerated depreciation schedule, so that the taxable income is less than usual. However, this leads to the taxable depreciation being utilized quicker than accounting depreciation, hence the tax payable merely deferred to a later period – when the tax depreciation runs out but accounting depreciation remains. Given the capital intensive nature of the business, it is understandable why Deferred tax liabilities are so large. We’ve discussed Provision for decommissioning costs under the Finance Costs section earlier. They are also quite significant at RM 266m. Notably, the Other Payables and Accruals are a hefty RM 431m. What do they relate to? Basically, they are contractual obligations to the sellers of the oil fields which are only payable upon oil prices reaching certain thresholds. Hence, while they are current in nature, they will only become payable when oil prices recover to previous highs, and are hence not an immediate cash outflow concern given today’s low oil prices. Cash Flow Statement There is nothing in the cash flow statement which warrants concern. Notably, the company generated OCF of approximately RM 500m in FY20 and RM 116m in 2Q21. It further incurred RM 330m and RM 234m of CAPEX in FY20 and 2Q21 respectively, largely owing to production enhancement projects to increase the production rate of the Anasuria and North Sabah fields, which according to management estimates are accretive to ROI. Tax paid was RM 97m in FY20 and RM 61m in 2Q21 (tax expense: RM 161m and RM 62m respectively).
There are a few obvious and not-so-obvious risks that one should be aware of before investing in Hibiscus. We shall not consider operational risks (e.g. uptime, OPEX) as they are outside the jurisdiction of the equity analyst. Instead, we shall focus on the financial and strategic risks largely outside the control of management. The main ones are: · Oil prices remaining subdued for long periods of time · Fluctuation of exchange rates · Customer concentration risk · 2P Reserves being less than estimated · Significant current and non-current liabilities · Potential issuance of equity Oil prices remaining subdued Of topmost concern in the minds of most analysts is whether Hibiscus has the wherewithal to sustain itself through this period of low oil prices (sub-$30). A quick and dirty estimate of annual cash outflow (i.e. burn rate) assuming a $20 oil world and historical production rates is between RM 50m-70m per year, which considering the RM 200m cash balance implies about 3-4 years of sustainability before the company runs out of cash and has to rely on external assistance for financing. Table 1: Hibiscus EBITDA at different oil price and exchange rates https://preview.redd.it/gxnekd6h9br41.png?width=670&format=png&auto=webp&s=edbfb9621a43480d11e3b49de79f61a6337b3d51 The above table shows different EBITDA scenarios (RM ‘m) given different oil prices (left column) and USD:MYR exchange rates (top row). Currently, oil prices are $27 and USD:MYR is 1:4.36. Given conservative assumptions of average OPEX/bbl of $20 (current: $15), we can safely say that the company will be loss-making as long as oil remains at $20 or below (red). However, we can see that once oil prices hit $25, the company can tank the lower-end estimate of the annual burn rate of RM 50m (orange), while at RM $27 it can sufficiently muddle through the higher-end estimate of the annual burn rate of RM 70m (green). Hence, we can assume that as long as the average oil price over the next 3-4 years remains above $25, Hibiscus should come out of this fine without the need for any external financing. Customer Concentration Risk With regards to customer concentration risk, there is not much the analyst or investor can do except to accept the risk. Fortunately, 80% of revenues can be attributed to two oil supermajors (Petronas and BP), hence the risk of default on contractual obligations and trade receivables seems to be quite diminished. 2P Reserves being less than estimated 2P Reserves being less than estimated is another risk that one should keep in mind. Fortunately, the current market cap is merely RM 714m – at half of estimated recoverable amounts of RM 1.468 billion – so there’s a decent margin of safety. In addition, there are other mitigating factors which shall be discussed in the next section (‘Opportunities’). Significant non-current and current liabilities The significant non-current and current liabilities have been addressed in the previous section. It has been determined that they pose no threat to immediate cash flow due to them being long-term in nature (e.g. decommissioning costs, deferred tax, etc). Hence, for the purpose of assessing going concern, their amounts should not be a cause for concern. Potential issuance of equity Finally, we come to the possibility of external financing being required in this low oil price environment. While the company should last 3-4 years on existing cash reserves, there is always the risk of other black swan events materializing (e.g. coronavirus) or simply oil prices remaining muted for longer than 4 years. Furthermore, management has hinted that they wish to acquire new oil assets at presently depressed prices to increase daily production rate to a targeted 20,000 bbl by end-2021. They have room to acquire debt, but they may also wish to issue equity for this purpose. Hence, the possibility of dilution to existing shareholders cannot be entirely ruled out. However, given management’s historical track record of prioritizing ROI and optimal capital allocation, and in consideration of the fact that the MD owns 10% of outstanding shares, there is some assurance that any potential acquisitions will be accretive to EPS and therefore valuations.
As with the existence of risk, the presence of material opportunities also looms over the company. Some of them are discussed below: · Increased Daily Oil Production Rate · Inclusion of 2C Resources · Future oil prices exceeding $50 and effects from coronavirus dissipating Increased Daily Oil Production Rate The first and most obvious opportunity is the potential for increased production rate. We’ve seen in the last quarter (2Q21) that the North Sabah field increased its daily production rate by approximately 20% as a result of production enhancement projects (infill drilling), lowering OPEX/bbl as a result. To vastly oversimplify, infill drilling is the process of maximizing well density by drilling in the spaces between existing wells to improve oil production. The same improvements are being undertaken at the Anasuria field via infill drilling, subsea debottlenecking, water injection and sidetracking of existing wells. Without boring you with industry jargon, this basically means future production rate is likely to improve going forward. By how much can the oil production rate be improved by? Management estimates in their analyst presentation that enhancements in the Anasuria field will be able to yield 5,000 bbl/day by 2021 (current: 2,500 bbl/day). Similarly, improvements in the North Sabah field is expected to yield 7,000 bbl/day by 2021 (current: 5,300 bbl/day). This implies a total 2021 expected daily production rate from the two fields alone of 12,000 bbl/day (current: 8,000 bbl/day). That’s a 50% increase in yields which we haven’t factored into our valuation yet. Furthermore, we haven’t considered any production from existing 2C resources (e.g. Marigold/Sunflower) or any potential acquisitions which may occur in the future. By management estimates, this can potentially increase production by another 8,000 bbl/day, bringing total production to 20,000 bbl/day. While this seems like a stretch of the imagination, it pays to keep them in mind when forecasting future revenues and valuations. Just to play around with the numbers, I’ve come up with a sensitivity analysis of possible annual EBITDA at different oil prices and daily oil production rates: Table 2: Hibiscus EBITDA at different oil price and daily oil production rates https://preview.redd.it/jnpfhr5n9br41.png?width=814&format=png&auto=webp&s=bbe4b512bc17f576d87529651140cc74cde3d159 The left column represents different oil prices while the top row represents different daily oil production rates. The green column represents EBITDA at current daily production rate of 8,000 bbl/day; the orange column represents EBITDA at targeted daily production rate of 12,000 bbl/day; while the purple column represents EBITDA at maximum daily production rate of 20,000 bbl/day. Even conservatively assuming increased estimated annual ITDA of RM 500m (FY20: RM 318m), and long-term average oil prices of $50 (FY20: $60), the estimated Net Profit and P/E ratio is potentially lucrative at daily oil production rates of 12,000 bbl/day and above. 2C Resources Since we’re on the topic of improved daily oil production rate, it bears to pay in mind the relatively enormous potential from Hibiscus’s 2C Resources. North Sabah’s 2C Resources alone exceed 30 mmbbl; while those from the yet undiagnosed Marigold/Sunflower fields also reach 30 mmbbl. Altogether, 2C Resources exceed 70 mmbbl, which dwarfs the 44 mmbbl of 2P Reserves we have considered up to this point in our valuation estimates. To refresh your memory, 2C Resources represents oil volumes which have been discovered but are not yet classified as “commercial”. This means that there is reasonable certainty of the oil being recoverable, as opposed to simply being in the very early stages of exploration. So, to be conservative, we will imagine that only 50% of 2C Resources are eligible for reclassification to 2P reserves, i.e. 35 mmbbl of oil. https://preview.redd.it/mto11iz7abr41.png?width=375&format=png&auto=webp&s=e9028ab0816b3d3e25067447f2c70acd3ebfc41a This additional 35 mmbbl of oil represents an 80% increase to existing 2P reserves. Assuming the daily oil production rate increases similarly by 80%, we will arrive at 14,400 bbl/day of oil production. According to Table 2 above, this would yield an EBITDA of roughly RM 630m assuming $50 oil. Comparing that estimated EBITDA to FY20’s actual EBITDA:
FY21 (incl. 2C)
Daily oil production (bbl/day)
Average oil price (USD/bbl)
Average OPEX/bbl (USD)
EBITDA (RM ‘m)
Hence, even conservatively assuming lower oil prices and higher OPEX/bbl (which should decrease in the presence of higher oil volumes) than last year, we get approximately the same EBITDA as FY20. For the sake of completeness, let’s assume that Hibiscus issues twice the no. of existing shares over the next 10 years, effectively diluting shareholders by 50%. Even without accounting for the possibility of the acquisition of new oil fields, at the current market capitalization of RM 714m, the prospective P/E would be about 10x. Not too shabby. Future oil prices exceeding $50 and effects from coronavirus dissipating Hibiscus shares have recently been hit by a one-two punch from oil prices cratering from $60 to $30, as a result of both the Saudi-Russian dispute and depressed demand for oil due to coronavirus. This has massively increased supply and at the same time hugely depressed demand for oil (due to the globally coordinated lockdowns being implemented). Given a long enough timeframe, I fully expect OPEC+ to come to an agreement and the economic effects from the coronavirus to dissipate, allowing oil prices to rebound. As we equity investors are aware, oil prices are cyclical and are bound to recover over the next 10 years. When it does, valuations of O&G stocks (including Hibiscus’s) are likely to improve as investors overshoot expectations and begin to forecast higher oil prices into perpetuity, as they always tend to do in good times. When that time arrives, Hibiscus’s valuations are likely to become overoptimistic as all O&G stocks tend to do during oil upcycles, resulting in valuations far exceeding reasonable estimates of future earnings. If you can hold the shares up until then, it’s likely you will make much more on your investment than what we’ve been estimating.
Wrapping up what we’ve discussed so far, we can conclude that Hibiscus’s market capitalization of RM 714m far undershoots reasonable estimates of fair value even under conservative assumptions of recoverable oil volumes and long-term average oil prices. As a value investor, I hesitate to assign a target share price, but it’s safe to say that this stock is worth at least RM 1.00 (current: RM 0.45). Risk is relatively contained and the upside far exceeds the downside. While I have no opinion on the short-term trajectory of oil prices, I can safely recommend this stock as a long-term Buy based on fundamental research.
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